What We Think

All articles

Understanding a No-Deal Brexit

The U.K. has a week to avert a no-deal departure from the EU. What will happen if it fails?

Geopolitics on the rocks

Europe, North America, Russia

February 04, 2019

Jacob L. Shapiro

Remembering to Forget World War II

People tend to compare every modern conflict to Hitler and the Nazis. They shouldn’t.

Geopolitics on the rocks

Weekly cables

MG in-depth

Known unknown

Travel Journals

Central Bank Impressions

Energy Strategy

Geofinancial Analysis

Quick views

Market Strategy

Forecasts

Macro-Economic Analysis

Big-Think Pieces

Policy Papers

MacroGeo Cable

Geopolitics on the rocks

Russia, North America

January 31, 2019

Matthew Crosston

Russian Bots, American Sheeple

The Geopolitics of Russian Active Measures

Geopolitics on the rocks

Europe

January 28, 2019

Ryan Bridges

Where Brexit Goes From Here

London may soon have two options again. This time, it’s no deal or no Brexit.

Geopolitics on the rocks

Europe

January 03, 2019

Jacob L. Shapiro

The Second Partition of Ukraine?

The country lost part of its territory nearly five years ago. Was that just the beginning?

MG in-depth

East Asia, North America

January 03, 2019

Lucio Caracciolo

NOT A CHINAMAN’S CHANCE

US and China won't coexist peacefully forever

Geopolitics on the rocks

East Asia

November 29, 2018

Phillip Orchard

The Philippines Makes the Most of China’s Interest

Manila may be warming to Beijing, but not enough to solve China’s maritime access problems.

Geopolitics on the rocks

Russia, East Asia

November 08, 2018

George Friedman

The Illusion of a Russia-China Alliance

Neither country can solve the other’s top economic and strategic problems.

October 28, 2018

Lucio Caracciolo

WHO IS ISRAEL

Israel's self-certification of its Judaic stigma has caused an uproar within the country itself as well as all over the...

Geopolitics on the rocks

Middle East

October 17, 2018

Xander Snyder

In Yemen, Cracks in the Saudi Alliance Begin to Show

The UAE doesn’t need a unified Yemen to secure its interests, but Saudi Arabia does.

MG in-depth

North America, Europe, Russia, Middle East, East Asia

September 23, 2018

Lucio Caracciolo

IN PRAISE OF THE ANTECHAMBER

Power lies in the Deep State, not in the political state

Geopolitics on the rocks

North America, East Asia

September 21, 2018

Phillip Orchard

The US and China dig in on trade

The trade war will only get bloodier from here.

Geopolitics on the rocks

Middle East

September 08, 2018

Xander Snyder

Idlib, the Latest Frontline in the Syrian Civil War

A battle over Idlib poses a threat to all countries involved in the conflict

MG in-depth

Middle East and North Africa, North America

August 15, 2018

Lucio Caracciolo

THE SNAKE’S HEAD

Americans are sure: the Persian Empire 2.0 cannot be contained, only destroyed

Geopolitics on the rocks

Italy, North America, Europe

July 23, 2018

Alessandro Aresu

Marchionne, Elkann and Italian capitalism

Analyzing Sergio Marchionne's geopolitical impact on Italy

MG in-depth

Europe, North America, South America, Italy

July 18, 2018

Lucio Caracciolo

ELEPHANTS DON’T TAP DANCE

It is not a given that Rome will forever be the centre of Catholicism. However, there has not ever been...

Geopolitics on the rocks

North America, East Asia, Europe, Middle East and North Africa, Russia

July 10, 2018

Toward a new understanding of world trade

Precise evaluations of current and future global trade patterns are more important than ever

Geopolitics on the rocks

Italy, Europe, North America

July 04, 2018

Alessandro Aresu

The League, the last party standing

How the League has gotten so far and what lies ahead for Matteo Salvini's party

Geopolitics on the rocks

Europe, Germany

June 26, 2018

George Friedman

In Germany, politics recollects history

Disagreements over immigration threaten the ruling coalition

LET US TRY AND EXIST

We are worth a great deal more than we think we are, certainly more than we would like to be...

Geopolitics on the rocks

Europe

June 16, 2018

Shapiro Jacob L.

The Latest Chapter in the European Migration Crisis

Be careful what you wish for. You just might get it

Geopolitics on the rocks

Italy, Europe, North America

June 16, 2018

Antonia Colibasanu

Why the US now fears what's happening in Italy

Italy’s importance to the United States is found in its role within U.S.-European affairs

Geopolitics on the rocks

Middle East

June 06, 2018

Xander Snyder

A Win-Win-Win Situation in Northern Syria

A rare agreement has reportedly been reached by the United States and Turkey, with the Syrian Kurds stuck in the...

Geopolitics on the rocks

East Asia

May 21, 2018

Phillip Orchard

North Korea manages expectations, one provocation at a time

Pyongyang thinks a deal is possible that would end the standoff largely on its own terms.

MG in-depth

North America, Europe, East Asia

May 16, 2018

Lucio Caracciolo

A WORLD OF STATES

The prophets of the extinction of states have been proved wrong. If anything, we are seeing a proliferation of states.

Geopolitics on the rocks

Italy, Europe

April 28, 2018

Alessandro Aresu

Vincent Bolloré and Italian capitalism

Despite the success of some midcaps, Italian capitalism has become smaller, more confused and therefore geopolitically weaker

JUPITER AT THE ELYSEE PALACE

France would like to revamp the empire to prevent its own decline

Geopolitics on the rocks

Europe

April 17, 2018

Nora Kalinskij

Poland, the Natural Ally for Post-Brexit Britain

Both countries are, in different ways, challenging the status quo in Europe

Geopolitics on the rocks

Middle East

April 12, 2018

George Friedman

The Syrian Tangle

Direct intervention is not an appealing option for Trump, but the creation of uncertainty is

Geopolitics on the rocks

East Asia

April 05, 2018

Stephen Nagy

In Japan is demography destiny?

Time for a modern Meiji Restoration

Geopolitics on the rocks

Italy

March 26, 2018

Alessandro Aresu

Giancarlo Giorgetti and embedded sovereignism

Any thinking sovereignist knows that, in order to play a role, sovereignism needs to be embedded

The Sun will rise again

Why Japan will soon start the climb towards the summits of global power

Macro-Economic Analysis

East Asia

March 16, 2018

Kel Kelly

It’s not the Economy, Stupid, it’s the Money

What has looked like recession in Japan is really steady growth in the presence of a stable money supply

Geopolitics on the rocks, MacroGeo Cable

East Asia

March 10, 2018

Dario Fabbri

Why North Korea would benefit more from a détente than...

Both North Korea and the US are acting out of vulnerability but the US more so

Geopolitics on the rocks

Africa

February 23, 2018

Allison Fedirka

Ethiopia's Unrest Invites Global Competition

Turkey, US, Russia, Iran, China and India look at Ethiopia's unrest and see an opportunity

MG in-depth

Europe, Middle East and North Africa, Central Asia, East Asia

February 16, 2018

Lucio Caracciolo

WAITING FOR AVERROES

In Europe we have managed to transform a religion into an ethnic group just as any person originating in a...

Geopolitics on the rocks

North America

February 08, 2018

Dario Fabbri

Why if it were up to him, Trump’s tax plan...

If Trump got his wish and turned the superpower into a conventional country, the US wouldn't be able to withstand...

Geopolitics on the rocks

East Asia

February 01, 2018

Jacob L. Shapiro

Puzzling US policy on North Korea

When will the president make a clear decision?

Geopolitics on the rocks

Middle East

January 31, 2018

George Friedman

Israel's Russia gambit

The Israelis are asking the Russians to strip Iran of what it had fought for in Syria

Geopolitics on the rocks

Russia

January 19, 2018

George Friedman

Russia and the limits of power

Perception matters when there aren’t many options.

Geopolitics on the rocks

East Asia

January 05, 2018

Phillip Orchard

North Korea: Hollow Words Ring in the New Year

The underlying fundamentals of the crisis on the Korean Peninsula have not changed

WALLS ARE BETTER THAN WARS

The Trimarium’s prism is key to explore power relations in the U.S.-Russian-German triangle

Geopolitics on the rocks

Europe, Italy

December 29, 2017

Alessandro Aresu

Three trends characterising Italy’s internal geopolitics

Machiavelli's prophecy, increased regionalism and unbreakable bureaucracy

Geopolitics on the rocks

Russia, East Asia

December 26, 2017

Shapiro Jacob L.

Russia and China’s Alliance of Convenience

A common enemy isn’t the basis for a stable, enduring partnership

Geofinancial Analysis

Europe

December 15, 2017

Marco Valerio Lo Prete

Italy’s long “fiscal illusion”

Unlike past public debt’s peaks, Italy's current debt load is the long term consequence of a fiscal illusion

Geopolitics on the rocks

North America, East Asia, India

December 07, 2017

Prabhu Guptara

Are you safe? Whose responsibility is it?

The impact of technology on geopolitics*

Geopolitics on the rocks

Middle East

December 01, 2017

Kamran Bokhari

A Complex Dynamic Between Israel and Iran

The two countries may have some shared interests, even though it doesn’t seem that way

DUCK OR RABBIT?

Why the Catalan question won’t end any time soon.

Geopolitics on the rocks

South Asia, India

November 20, 2017

Prabhu Guptara

Why does India oppose China’s Silk Roads?

A geopolitical answer: India’s discomfort with China's objective of dominating the world

Geopolitics on the rocks

Middle East

November 16, 2017

Jacob L. Shapiro

Saudi Arabia, Russia: Delivering Missiles, Delivering Promises of Cooperation

Russia is hedging the bets it placed on Iran, while Teheran continues to reap what benefits it can from Moscow’s...

MacroGeo Cable

Russia, Middle East and North Africa, East Asia

November 06, 2017

Dario Fabbri

Russia and the US to reach a tactical agreement? Don’t...

Times are still not ripe for a truce, as one can glean by reading geopolitics leafs

Geopolitics on the rocks

East Asia, South Asia

November 02, 2017

Phillip Orchard

Containing China on the Open Seas

An Asian NATO is still not in the cards, but Japan, India, Australia and the United States are destinted to...

MG in-depth

East Asia, North America

October 19, 2017

Lucio Caracciolo

A LOSS OF FACE OR HEADS

Excited by an adolescent fervour, in the ongoing clash between North Korea and the US Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump...

The rationale behind Trump’s announcement on Iran

Since 2015 much has changed in the Middle East and the US needed to ruffle some feathers

Geopolitics on the rocks

Middle East, Central Asia

October 07, 2017

Kamran Bokhari

Can US relations stand the test of time?

The logic that bound the U.S. to Saudi Arabia and Pakistan no longer exists

Geopolitics on the rocks

North America

October 06, 2017

Joseph Shupac

Why Canada and Mexico are bound to get closer

Maybe the US will divide and conquer, economically speaking, both its North American partners but there are many reasons to...

UNCLE SAM IS NOT MY UNCLE

Only by persuading the most rebellious chicanos to embrace the American way of life the U.S. can thrive as the...

Macro-Economic Analysis

Europe

September 21, 2017

Marco Valerio Lo Prete

The ECB and demographic challenges in Europe: a primer on...

Demographic changes - especially ageing populations - are putting more pressure on public finances

Geopolitics on the rocks

North America

September 15, 2017

Allison Fedirka

In the decades ahead US and Mexico will fight for...

Current lull in the bilateral competition will not last forever. And the rivalry will most likely resume in the Caribbean

Geopolitics on the rocks

North America

September 14, 2017

George Friedman

In Canada, Deep Divisions Brilliantly Managed

The country has been able to withstand differences that would tear other countries apart

Geopolitics on the rocks

Europe, Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa

September 06, 2017

K. Campbell

How to drastically reduce irregular migration flow to the E.U.

Most of the ongoing and planned E.U. efforts to tackle the problem focus on aspects physically closest to home, but...

Steve Bannon and America’s geopolitical trajectory

Why Trump's former chief strategist's attempt to disband the US empire was doomed from the start

Macro-Economic Analysis

North America, Europe, East Asia

August 18, 2017

Marco Valerio Lo Prete

Why Trump’s "America first" approach might expose the G20 protectionism

By urging its trade partners to dismiss discriminatory measures against US goods, Trump is showing that when it comes to...

MG in-depth

Europe, East Asia, North America

August 07, 2017

Alessandro Aresu

Matteo Negro

A “Europe that protects”, but from whom and why?

European countries are on the defensive. They want to protect themselves from China’s acquisitions in advanced technological sectors, from America’s...

Macron and Trump: a marriage made in geopolitics

Emmanuel Macron and Donald Trump couldn’t be any more different but now France and the US need each other.

Geopolitics on the rocks

North America, Middle East and North Africa

July 27, 2017

Kofi Campbell

What Trump can do with the Iran Nuclear Deal

Much to the pleasure of the hardliners, Trump could unilaterally withdraw from the nuclear deal. However, such a move would...

Known unknown

East Asia, North America

July 21, 2017

Dario Fabbri

Why China’s New Silk Roads won’t be enough to challenge...

OBOR has been conceived to increase China’s exports but throughout history no world hegemon has ever been a net exporter

MG in-depth

July 15, 2017

Lucio Caracciolo

The sea does not wash the shores of Italy

Influenced by Europeanist rhetoric suggesting that it should cling to the Alps so as not to fall into Africa, over...

Weekly cables

July 12, 2017

Week 24 - 2017

The US needs to assure Beijing and convince Seoul before attacking North Korea As proved by MacroGeo, until a couple of months ago the Trump administration didn’t want to make...

US Congress wants to reduce White House power to wage...

A trend we believe will continue to strengthen in the next years

MacroGeo Cable

East Asia, North America

July 11, 2017

Dario Fabbri

The US needs to assure Beijing and convince Seoul before...

Necessary maneuvers which would bring the US and North Korea closer to war

Geopolitics on the rocks

East Asia

July 07, 2017

Michael Cucek

How the last North Korean missile launch has bonded Trump...

Pyongyang’s last ICBM test has turned attention away from Abe’s domestic troubles and drawn the U.S. into sharing the danger...

Geopolitics on the rocks

June 29, 2017

Kofi Campbell

Abe doctrine and its risks: what Japan’s future could look...

Shinzo Abe has pursued the re-establishment of Japan as the leading power in Asia through economic growth and the buildup...

Geopolitics on the rocks

North America

June 22, 2017

Joseph Shupac

Can Canada resist Trump’s offensive on Nafta?

Canada’s dependency on the US and internal divisions might reduce its leverage in any trade negotiations. But its interests being global...

MG in-depth

Europe, North America

June 16, 2017

Lucio Caracciolo

A German Europe; an American nightmare

German-American relations have always been marked by inescapable hostility. Now Washington’s plot to prevent the creation of a German sphere...

Is Israel preparing to go to war with Hezbollah?

Why a new war is not near

MacroGeo Cable

North America, Middle East, Europe

June 12, 2017

Dario Fabbri

America’s promises and Turkey’s weakness

Why Ankara’s acceptance of Washington getting cozy to the Kurds is a clear show of weakness

Geopolitics on the rocks

June 09, 2017

Alessandro Aresu

Pope Francis against the Apocalypse

Coming from the end of the world but only wanting to generate beginnings, the pontiff doesn't focus on spatial geopolitics...

Iran’s Reformists reject Tillerson’s call for regime change

Imperial countries tend to overcome internal divisions if faced with an external enemy

North Korea and the Olympics curse

Countries or entire regions tend to change dramatically soon after hosting major sports events like the Olympics or World Cup....

Weekly cables

June 05, 2017

Dario Fabbri

Week 23 - 2017

Is Israel preparing to go to war with Hezbollah? As of late, Israeli media have been abuzz with news regarding Israel Defense Forces (IDF) getting ready for a confrontation with...

Weekly cables

June 01, 2017

Dario Fabbri

Week 22 - 2017

Saudi Arabia between Trump and the deep State Last month, while visiting Riyadh, Trump suggested Saudi and United Arab Emirates officials that his administration would back an attempt to force...

Geopolitics on the rocks

South Asia

May 26, 2017

Prabhu Guptara

What game is Modi playing?

Prime Minister Modi has long used his towering image abroad to mask India’s economic problems and the huge social unease...

Weekly cables

May 22, 2017

Dario Fabbri

Week 21 - 2017

The U.S. won’t abandon Russia’s containment (no matter what Trump says) Last week the Trump administration released its overall spending plan. While only a proposal for now, it remains a...

Why Italy is needed

Despite what Italian public and elites believe, Italy is necessary to prevent the peninsula from breaking up and becoming the...

Weekly cables

May 15, 2017

Dario Fabbri

Week 19 - 2017

Trump, Nafta and a White House ruse Now we know, Trump is all about haggling. When setting up a negotiation, he sets the bar really high in the attempt to...

Weekly cables

May 15, 2017

Dario Fabbri

Week 20 - 2017

Why the US deep State doesn’t want Trump’s impeachment Much has been made of the US Justice Department appointment of former Fbi Director Robert Mueller as special counsel in the...

Why the US deep State doesn’t want Trump’s impeachment

Having Trump under investigation for months is all US federal agencies might want and need

Geopolitics on the rocks

May 12, 2017

Massimo Nicolazzi

The secret to energy transition

The energy transition we are witnessing today, from fossil fuels to renewables, is mandated by the tragedy of horizons, rather...

MacroGeo Cable

Middle East, North America

May 12, 2017

Dario Fabbri

The US won’t extradite Fethullah Gülen

Lobbying can say much of how Washington works

In political crises, Macedonia and Albania risk economic slowdown

Political instability is increasing in Albania, where the main opposition party is threatening not to participate in the June general...

Geopolitics on the rocks

May 08, 2017

Antonio S.J. Spadaro

The Diplomacy of Pope Francis

By rejecting rigid interpretive mechanisms and by showing a commitment for the common good, Pope Francis has put mercy at...

Weekly cables

May 07, 2017

Dario Fabbri

Week 18 - 2017

A two-speed Europe and the upcoming US-Germany clash Despite being touted as the next phase of the European project, two-speed Europe is actually the formalization of Germany’s sphere of influence...

Geopolitics on the rocks

East Asia

May 03, 2017

Michael Cucek

A Sino-Japanese Springtime?

Sino-Japanese relations are on the upswing. By favoring people-to-people exchanges and being less emphatic, Tokyo and Beijing are both unveiling...

Weekly cables

April 26, 2017

Dario Fabbri

Week 17 - 2017

France’s presidential election and the country’s strategic dilemma Facing off in the runoff vote of France’s presidential election, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen well embody the strategic dilemma Paris...

Geopolitics on the rocks

South America

April 26, 2017

Niccolò Locatelli

Maduro can go, but Venezuela’s instability is here to stay

No matter the president's fate, Venezuela’s dependence on oil prices is bound to trigger more unrest and protests. Why chavistas...

Macro-Economic Analysis

East Asia

April 21, 2017

Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi

Francisco Quintana

Understanding China’s rise: the role of captive savings

Over the last three decades, China’s contribution to global growth tripled. The Communist Party of China (CPC) - the Republic’s...

Grexit Ghost 2.0: Will The World Bank Come To the...

As it is still unclear whether the IMF’s participation in the latest Greek bailout package worth EUR 86bn is secured, separate talks with the World Bank are ongoing. With important...

Geopolitics on the rocks

Middle East and North Africa

April 21, 2017

Daniele Santoro

Why Erdogan is now weaker, hence more dangerous

The controversial outcome of Sunday’s referendum has paradoxically curtailed Erdogan’s power. But feeling squeezed between domestic oppositions and stalemate on...

Geopolitics on the rocks

Middle East and North Africa

April 18, 2017

Giovanni Parigi

The rule of militias, the Middle East after ra‘is and...

Current crises in the Middle East are marked by the rise of militias with ethnic, sectarian, local, tribal or simply...

Geopolitics on the rocks

North America

April 14, 2017

Joseph Shupac

Trudeau walks a tightrope

Spurred by international popularity and a large majority in parliament, for the past year and a half Canada’s prime minister...

Central Bank Impressions

Europe

April 13, 2017

Nouriel Roubini

BOE Prepares To Tighten Policy (In Spite of Brexit Clouds...

In March 2017, the BOE voted 8-1 to keep the policy rate unchanged. In this paper we discuss what could...

Market Strategy

April 12, 2017

Andreas Schalla

Currency Wars, Trade Wars and War On Cash

We are witnessing an escalation of threats of trade wars, currency wars and wars on cash. In this paper we...

Geofinancial Analysis

Middle East and North Africa

April 11, 2017

Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Mert Yildiz

Turkey: Referendum Unlikely to Impact the Medium-Term Outlook

Just a week before the Constitutional referendum to provide the Turkish President with executive powers we discuss the likely outcome,...

Weekly cables

April 11, 2017

Dario Fabbri

Week 15 - 2017

Besides its international consequences, the U.S. attack on Syria also represented another episode in the tug of war between Trump and the so-called deep State. And both sides believe they’ve...

CNB's Removal Of FX Floor To Lead To Gradual Tightening

CNB removes the floor for the Czech Krona against the EUR after inflation overshoots its target. We expect CZK tightening...

Germany: Economic Resilience and Political Fragility

We recently visited Germany – Berlin and Frankfurt – to assess the state of the economy, views concerning the EU...

Known unknown

North America, Middle East and North Africa

April 07, 2017

Dario Fabbri

Three goals for a U.S. attack on Syria

The U.S. attack on the Syrian air base of Sharyat was mostly symbolic. Last night 59 tomahawk missiles, launched from destroyers Ross and Porter in the Eastern Mediterranean, struck the...

Geopolitics on the rocks

East Asia

April 06, 2017

Giorgio Cuscito

What China’s anti-terror campaign can’t solve in Xinjiang

China has been intensifying repression against ethnic Uyghurs as to pacify its westernmost region and prevent terrorism from interfering with...

Geofinancial Analysis

Europe

April 06, 2017

Arlind Rama

The Western Balkans at a Crossroads: Amidst Nationalism and Pragmatism

The Western Balkans remain trapped in a vicious cycle of nationalist rhetoric undermining regional integration. In this paper, we discuss...

Central Bank Impressions

Europe

April 04, 2017

Nouriel Roubini

ECB: Keep the Sequencing, Tweak The Guidance

The ECB has provided clear indications regarding its policy framework until the end of 2017. However, speculation is mounting about...

Short-Term Stability at the Risk of Medium-Term Fragilities

I recently spent a few days in Beijing to attend – right after the National People’s Congress - the China...

Weekly cables

April 03, 2017

Dario Fabbri

Week 14 - 2017

Trump’s America is staying the course in the Middle East, pursuing the very same balance of power the Obama administration tried to establish. In order to achieve such a goal,...

Cracks in the EU: High Time to Pull Itself Together

Europe is in the middle of a storm, and could survive only if its leaders will manage to find new reasons to stick together. The most prominent issues that seem...

Geopolitics on the rocks

Sub-Saharan Africa

March 31, 2017

Luca Mainoldi

Everybody in, scrambling for Djibouti

In the past years the rise of Somali piracy, the need to control the strategic Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and to expand...

Geopolitics on the rocks

North America

March 29, 2017

Alessandro Aresu

Geopolitics of technology and the rise of Peter Thiel

In the next years conflict between tech companies and traditional powers will spawn a non-neutral view of technology among Western...

The Kremlin's Blessing for Serbia’s Favourite Presidential Candidate

Presidential elections in Serbia are not expected to produce surprises, but closer ties to the Kremlin raise concerns about Belgrade’s nationalistic agenda within the context of the Western Balkans’ integration....

A Deep-Dive In Trump-Land

Nouriel Roubini recently spent a few days in Washington, DC to understand the likely economic policies of the new Trump...

Weekly cables

March 27, 2017

Dario Fabbri

Week 13 - 2017

In his first interview as Secretary of State and echoing one of Donald Trump’s electoral suggestions, Rex Tillerson broached the possibility of Japan and South Korea obtaining nuclear weapons. Talking...

Geopolitics on the rocks

East Asia

March 24, 2017

Michael Cucek

Left in the dark, Japan dealing with Trump

At first sight Abe and Trump seem to be on the same page, but Tokyo is terrified at the U.S....

Market Strategy

March 23, 2017

Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi

Asset Allocation 2017: Lower expected returns, Higher exposure to alternatives

Where to Invest in 2017? Geopolitical risks, lower expected returns and weak growth suggest greater exposure to alternative asset classes....

Energy Strategy

Middle East and North Africa

March 22, 2017

Luca Baccarini

Gas developments in the Eastern Mediterranean will continue (in spite...

Major natural gas discoveries have occurred in recent years off the coasts of Israel, Cyprus and Egypt. This paper is...

Weekly cables

March 20, 2017

Dario Fabbri

Week 12 - 2017

Many observers and commentators across Europe have welcomed the results of Dutch general elections which show moderate prime minister Mark Rutte holding onto power and the Euroskeptic Party for Freedom...

Weekly cables

March 18, 2017

Dario Fabbri

Week 11 - 2017

Despite Trump’s promised opening to Russia and the military downsizing underway in Europe since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. Army is now scouting locations in Northern Germany...

Geofinancial Analysis

Europe

March 17, 2017

Pascal Gauchon

French Presidential Elections: Between Farce And Political Renewal

France is experiencing the most bizarre presidential election of its entire history since 1848. In this report we discuss how...

Geopolitics on the rocks

Middle East and North Africa

March 16, 2017

John C. Hulsman

The Empire Strikes Back: The Return of the U.S. -...

The more ideological wing of the Trump administration sees radical Islam as the number one global threat to America. The...

Central Bank Impressions

North America

March 16, 2017

Alessandro Tentori

FOMC Review: See you in June

The Fed increase its policy rates as widely expected. In this report, we discuss the recent move by the Federal...

Geopolitics on the rocks

Europe

March 15, 2017

Lucio Caracciolo

How Germany is rediscovering its strategic dimension (in spite of...

Uncertainty surrounding America’s commitment to Europe, tension with Russia and the destabilisation in North Africa and the Middle East are...

Energy Strategy

March 13, 2017

Adam Ritchie

OPEC Compliance: Watch the Area Under the Curve

In November 2016, OPEC member countries decided a 1.2 mb/d cut to production for the first six months of 2017....

Policy Papers

Europe

March 12, 2017

A joint intervention for Italy: a non-punitive plan for investment...

Italy has economically underperformed most of its Euro-area peers for the last few years. Austerity-based policy measures adopted since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 have not helped, but the...

Macedonia in a downward spiral of division

The recent elections in Macedonia have sparked incremental and divisive nationalistic hard-line rhetoric that raises concerns about a potential ethnic conflict, instead of producing a constructive political solution for the...

Central Bank Impressions

Europe

March 10, 2017

Alessandro Tentori

FOMC: After a Done Deal

After the rate hike in December 2016, the Fed seems ready to increase rates again. In this report, we discuss...

Why empires are not a good bargain

Trump’s election is the by-product of America’s imperial fatigue. But will the U.S. resign from being the world’s only superpower?...

Geopolitics on the rocks

North America

March 09, 2017

Pamela K. Starr

How U.S. and Mexico are prepping for a fight

Despite unprecedented cooperation between the two countries’ bureaucracies, Trump threatens to hit Mexico hard on security, immigration and trade. But...

Geofinancial Analysis

Europe

March 08, 2017

Fabrizio Maronta

Too Many Crises Affecting Europe (And Not Enough Solutions)

The EU is a potentially lethal mix of common complaints and national sins, all conspiring to tear down the Union....

Erdogan Attempts Headlock on Merkel

Merkel is under rising pressure to make significant decisions and maintaining her chancellorship will become a far greater challenge than previously thought. Angela Merkel´s lead in opinion polls over SPD´s...

Central Bank Impressions

Europe

March 03, 2017

Alex Waters

ECB: Beware of Staff Projections

As the March's meeting of the ECB approaches, we discuss how the Governing Council can use its macroeconomic staff projections...

How the U.S. Deep State’s war on Trump will evolve

As MacroGeo predicted weeks before Donald Trump’s inauguration, U.S. federal agencies are now waging a fierce war against the president’s asserted opening to Russia, sabotaging any thaw between the two...

Gunpowder Behind the Pleasant Façade of Greek Bailout Talks

A few days ago, major efforts were undertaken by top officials representing The Institutions (a.k.a. troika) to present a unanimous front regarding current bailout efforts for Greece. Even though creditors...

Europe in The Brexit and Trump Era: Dis-Integration and Re-Grouping

At the beginning of the last century Europe dominated the world. In other words, the world was European. Nowadays, Europe...

Macro-Economic Analysis

North America

February 24, 2017

Nouriel Roubini

Will The U.S. Adopt a Border Adjustment Tax?

One of the most controversial aspects of the corporate tax reform proposed by Republicans in the US House of Representatives...

UK: Jumping Without Parachute

Our recent visit to London took place around the time the UK parliament approved the Brexit bill and the government...

Geopolitics on the rocks

South Asia

February 23, 2017

Prabhu Guptara

How tensions between Delhi and India’s numerous states might cripple...

Strains between the central government and the States have long affected India’s foreign policy. But Delhi’s drive to impose a...

Reality Pricking the Brussels Bubble

Europe faces a world in which America leans towards protectionism and unilateralism (and expresses mixed signals and effective scepticism about...

Geofinancial Analysis

Europe

February 16, 2017

Andreas Schalla

Germany: A Reluctant Leader Moving into the Spotlight

Germany is entering 2017 with a number of unresolved issues. Domestically, the September 24th general election might see an important...

Quick views

February 15, 2017

Riccardo Fiorito

The Detrimental Impact Of Low Inflation On Debt Dynamics

Since the 1970s, oil and labour shocks made even orthodox Keynesian economists more concerned about the costs of inflation. These costs were eventually recognised because an increased foreign competition became...

Geopolitics on the rocks

East Asia

February 14, 2017

Giorgio Cuscito

Deciphering China’s perspective on Trump

Notwithstanding Trump's assertive posture, Xi Jinping won't compromise on China's core interests. As the next Communist Party Congress draws closer,...

Market Strategy

Europe, North America

February 14, 2017

Alessandro Tentori

Inflation Trends in US and EZ Drive Diverging Yield Curve...

Inflation seems on its way up internationally, with the deflation risk having seemingly disappeared from the radar screens. However, large...

Market Strategy

Europe

February 13, 2017

Mert Yildiz, Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi

Turkish Lira Set To Weaken Further

Since the beginning of 2017, the TRY has depreciated by 4.7% against the USD. In this paper, we discuss why...

Geopolitics on the rocks

Europe

February 07, 2017

Pascal Gauchon

Where is France headed?

France's three main presidential candidates sport different worldviews. Marine Le Pen is a hardline nationalist, François Fillon a moderate gaullist,...

Grexit Ghost to Haunt Europe (Again)

The Greek debt crisis is likely to resurface as the year progresses towards the summer of 2017. The country is on track to become (once again) the focus of markets...

February 03, 2017

Lucio Caracciolo

China and America set on a collision course

Xi and Trump share a desire to make their respective empires great again and seem willing to pursue such a...

Geopolitics on the rocks

North America

January 31, 2017

Dario Fabbri

Can Trump’s commercial worldview be reconciled with America’s imperial nature?

As Trump looks at the world only through commercial lenses, he seems willing to engage in diplomacy or to intervene...

Geopolitics on the rocks

Middle East and North Africa

January 23, 2017

Mattia Toaldo

Can Libya's collapsing economy be the key to stabilisation?

Libya’s three governments and numerous militias have been vying for power and territory. However, they share an interest in increasing...

A “Recovery-less” Job Growth in Italy?

“Jobless recoveries” are a well-known phenomenon in economics: especially in the initial stage of the recovery phase of the business cycle, GDP accelerates without generating new jobs, as employers want...

Geopolitics on the rocks

Middle East and North Africa

January 19, 2017

Giovanni Parigi

Da‘esh, the Mesopotamian Phoenix

Even if Da’esh may be bound to lose Mosul and Raqqah, it will most certainly adapt to the new reality...

Geopolitics on the rocks

Europe

January 16, 2017

Alessandro Aresu

Why the judicial power is Italy’s “constant”

For the past 25 years the judiciary has been the only power to fill the vacuums created by legislative uncertainty...

One bomb leads to another

The Korean peninsula is where a Third World War might probably erupt. A strategic theatre where the United States and...

Geopolitics on the rocks

Russia

January 09, 2017

Dario Fabbri

Why "time" is all Trump can offer Putin

Trump’s stated appreciation of Putin promises to change US-Russia relations for good. But US Congress and federal agencies will slowly...

Geopolitics on the rocks

North America, Europe

December 30, 2016

Matteo Garavoglia

Why Germany and the US are in for a troubled...

Germany reacted to Donald Trump’s election with dismay. In the next years Berlin might be inclined by Washington’s lower profile...

An American America

The president’s agenda will no doubt be drafted by himself and by his strategists. That said, it will, however, be...

Geofinancial Analysis

Europe, Russia

December 20, 2016

Arlind Rama

Russia’s Pressure on the Balkans Increases

The fortunes of Europe have always been intertwined with developments in the Balkans. The most famous episode (the killing of...

Geofinancial Analysis

Russia

December 19, 2016

Mert Yildiz, Anastasia Nesvetailova

Adam Ritchie

Russia: Short-Term Stability, Long-Term Vulnerability

Russia’s economic, political and geopolitical future can appear different if seen from a short-term or a longer-term perspective. In this...

Central Bank Impressions

North America

December 15, 2016

Alessandro Tentori

FOMC Review: Fiscal Policy is a Key Variable

The FOMC increased the Fed funds target range, as widely expected, and for the first time in 18 months, it...

Travel Journals, Energy Strategy

Middle East and North Africa

December 02, 2016

Adam Ritchie

OPEC: Life in The Old Dog Yet

We attended the 171st-Meeting of the OPEC Conference in Vienna for what was shaping up to be the most significant...

Forecasts

November 29, 2016

Andrea Tamoni, Alex Waters

G4 Long-Term Macro-Financial Forecasts

In this paper, we focus our attention on medium-to long-term forecasts of univariate macrofinancial variables, which likely incorporate long-term trends...

Energy Strategy

Middle East and North Africa

November 21, 2016

Adam Ritchie

Postcard from Algiers: Why an OPEC agreement in Vienna is...

OPEC represents a complex version of the classic game theory problem; the prisoner’s dilemma. To optimise collective value creation, OPEC...

Geofinancial Analysis

South America

November 21, 2016

Adam Ritchie

Venezuela, Another Victim of the Resource Curse

Venezuela’s ongoing economic, financial and political crisis can be considered a variant of what economists sometimes call Dutch disease, i.e....

Geofinancial Analysis

Europe

November 18, 2016

Lucio Caracciolo, Mert Yildiz

Why Erdogan’s Geopolitical and Economic Dreams Are Bound to Clash...

Turkey’s president Recep Erdogan has a grand vision for the country and for his own future. According to his plan,...

Travel Journals

Europe

November 15, 2016

Macrogeo's Research Team

Italy (Part 2): Italy at the Referendum’s Crossroads

On December 4th, 2016 Italian voters will be asked to approve or reject a series of amendments to Italy’s constitution,...

Geofinancial Analysis

North America

November 10, 2016

Macrogeo's Research Team

Will The New U.S. President Really “Trump” Globalisation?

In the aftermath of the election of Donald Trump as U.S. President, uncertainty abounds as to what kind of president...

Travel Journals

Europe

November 02, 2016

Macrogeo's Research Team

Italy (Part 1): A Cocktail Of Risk Ahead

We recently visited Italy to assess the country’s conjunctural, structural and political developments in a crucial period of its recent...

Geofinancial Analysis

Europe

October 27, 2016

Andreas Schalla

Pressure for Greek Debt Relief Increases

On October 25th, the Board of Directors of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) authorised the disbursement of €2.8 billion to...

Market Strategy

October 24, 2016

Alessandro Tentori

Searching For The “Economic” Lower Bound in Yields

In this note, we want to discuss reasons for holding a negative-yielding bond. Intuitively, one would imagine that investors have...