What We Think

Pyongyang’s last ICBM test has turned attention away from Abe’s domestic troubles and drawn the U.S. into sharing the danger...

Shinzo Abe has pursued the re-establishment of Japan as the leading power in Asia through economic growth and the buildup...

Canada’s dependency on the US and internal divisions might reduce its leverage in any trade negotiations. But its interests being global...

German-American relations have always been marked by inescapable hostility. Now Washington’s plot to prevent the creation of a German sphere...

Coming from the end of the world but only wanting to generate beginnings, the pontiff doesn't focus on spatial geopolitics...

Countries or entire regions tend to change dramatically soon after hosting major sports events like the Olympics or World Cup....

Is Israel preparing to go to war with Hezbollah? As of late, Israeli media have been abuzz with news regarding Israel Defense Forces (IDF) getting ready for a confrontation with...

Saudi Arabia between Trump and the deep State  Last month, while visiting Riyadh, Trump suggested Saudi and United Arab Emirates officials that his administration would back an attempt to force...

Prime Minister Modi has long used his towering image abroad to mask India’s economic problems and the huge social unease...

The U.S. won’t abandon Russia’s containment (no matter what Trump says) Last week the Trump administration released its overall spending plan. While only a proposal for now, it remains a...

Despite what Italian public and elites believe, Italy is necessary to prevent the peninsula from breaking up and becoming the...

Trump, Nafta and a White House ruse Now we know, Trump is all about haggling. When setting up a negotiation, he sets the bar really high in the attempt to...

Why the US deep State doesn’t want Trump’s impeachment Much has been made of the US Justice Department appointment of former Fbi Director Robert Mueller as special counsel in the...

The energy transition we are witnessing today, from fossil fuels to renewables, is mandated by the tragedy of horizons, rather...

Political instability is increasing in Albania, where the main opposition party is threatening not to participate in the June general...

By rejecting rigid interpretive mechanisms and by showing a commitment for the common good, Pope Francis has put mercy at...

A two-speed Europe and the upcoming US-Germany clash Despite being touted as the next phase of the European project, two-speed Europe is actually the formalization of Germany’s sphere of influence...

Sino-Japanese relations are on the upswing. By favoring people-to-people exchanges and being less emphatic, Tokyo and Beijing are both unveiling...

France’s presidential election and the country’s strategic dilemma Facing off in the runoff vote of France’s presidential election, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen well embody the strategic dilemma Paris...

No matter the president's fate, Venezuela’s dependence on oil prices is bound to trigger more unrest and protests. Why chavistas...

Over the last three decades, China’s contribution to global growth tripled. The Communist Party of China (CPC) - the Republic’s...

As it is still unclear whether the IMF’s participation in the latest Greek bailout package worth EUR 86bn is secured, separate talks with the World Bank are ongoing. With important...

The controversial outcome of Sunday’s referendum has paradoxically curtailed Erdogan’s power. But feeling squeezed between domestic oppositions and stalemate on...

Current crises in the Middle East are marked by the rise of militias with ethnic, sectarian, local, tribal or simply...

Spurred by international popularity and a large majority in parliament, for the past year and a half Canada’s prime minister...

In March 2017, the BOE voted 8-1 to keep the policy rate unchanged. In this paper we discuss what could...

We are witnessing an escalation of threats of trade wars, currency wars and wars on cash. In this paper we...

Just a week before the Constitutional referendum to provide the Turkish President with executive powers we discuss the likely outcome,...

Besides its international consequences, the U.S. attack on Syria also represented another episode in the tug of war between Trump and the so-called deep State. And both sides believe they’ve...

CNB removes the floor for the Czech Krona against the EUR after inflation overshoots its target. We expect CZK tightening...

The U.S. attack on the Syrian air base of Sharyat was mostly symbolic. Last night 59 tomahawk missiles, launched from destroyers Ross and Porter in the Eastern Mediterranean, struck the...

We recently visited Germany – Berlin and Frankfurt – to assess the state of the economy, views concerning the EU...

China has been intensifying repression against ethnic Uyghurs as to pacify its westernmost region and prevent terrorism from interfering with...

The Western Balkans remain trapped in a vicious cycle of nationalist rhetoric undermining regional integration. In this paper, we discuss...

The ECB has provided clear indications regarding its policy framework until the end of 2017. However, speculation is mounting about...

Trump’s America is staying the course in the Middle East, pursuing the very same balance of power the Obama administration tried to establish. In order to achieve such a goal,...

I recently spent a few days in Beijing to attend – right after the National People’s Congress - the China...

Europe is in the middle of a storm, and could survive only if its leaders will manage to find new reasons to stick together. The most prominent issues that seem...

In the past years the rise of Somali piracy, the need to control the strategic Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and to expand...

Presidential elections in Serbia are not expected to produce surprises, but closer ties to the Kremlin raise concerns about Belgrade’s nationalistic agenda within the context of the Western Balkans’ integration....

In the next years conflict between tech companies and traditional powers will spawn a non-neutral view of technology among Western...

In his first interview as Secretary of State and echoing one of Donald Trump’s electoral suggestions, Rex Tillerson broached the possibility of Japan and South Korea obtaining nuclear weapons. Talking...

Nouriel Roubini recently spent a few days in Washington, DC to understand the likely economic policies of the new Trump...

At first sight Abe and Trump seem to be on the same page, but Tokyo is terrified at the U.S....

Where to Invest in 2017? Geopolitical risks, lower expected returns and weak growth suggest greater exposure to alternative asset classes....

Major natural gas discoveries have occurred in recent years off the coasts of Israel, Cyprus and Egypt. This paper is...

Many observers and commentators across Europe have welcomed the results of Dutch general elections which show moderate prime minister Mark Rutte holding onto power and the Euroskeptic Party for Freedom...

Despite Trump’s promised opening to Russia and the military downsizing underway in Europe since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. Army is now scouting locations in Northern Germany...

France is experiencing the most bizarre presidential election of its entire history since 1848. In this report we discuss how...

The more ideological wing of the Trump administration sees radical Islam as the number one global threat to America. The...

The Fed increase its policy rates as widely expected. In this report, we discuss the recent move by the Federal...

Uncertainty surrounding America’s commitment to Europe, tension with Russia and the destabilisation in North Africa and the Middle East are...

In November 2016, OPEC member countries decided a 1.2 mb/d cut to production for the first six months of 2017....

Italy has economically underperformed most of its Euro-area peers for the last few years. Austerity-based policy measures adopted since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 have not helped, but the...

The recent elections in Macedonia have sparked incremental and divisive nationalistic hard-line rhetoric that raises concerns about a potential ethnic conflict, instead of producing a constructive political solution for the...

After the rate hike in December 2016, the Fed seems ready to increase rates again. In this report, we discuss...

Trump’s election is the by-product of America’s imperial fatigue. But will the U.S. resign from being the world’s only superpower?...

Despite unprecedented cooperation between the two countries’ bureaucracies, Trump threatens to hit Mexico hard on security, immigration and trade. But...

The EU is a potentially lethal mix of common complaints and national sins, all conspiring to tear down the Union....

Merkel is under rising pressure to make significant decisions and maintaining her chancellorship will become a far greater challenge than previously thought. Angela Merkel´s lead in opinion polls over SPD´s...

As the March's meeting of the ECB approaches, we discuss how the Governing Council can use its macroeconomic staff projections...

As MacroGeo predicted weeks before Donald Trump’s inauguration, U.S. federal agencies are now waging a fierce war against the president’s asserted opening to Russia, sabotaging any thaw between the two...

A few days ago, major efforts were undertaken by top officials representing The Institutions (a.k.a. troika) to present a unanimous front regarding current bailout efforts for Greece. Even though creditors...

At the beginning of the last century Europe dominated the world. In other words, the world was European. Nowadays, Europe...

Our recent visit to London took place around the time the UK parliament approved the Brexit bill and the government...

One of the most controversial aspects of the corporate tax reform proposed by Republicans in the US House of Representatives...

Strains between the central government and the States have long affected India’s foreign policy. But Delhi’s drive to impose a...

Europe faces a world in which America leans towards protectionism and unilateralism (and expresses mixed signals and effective scepticism about...

Germany is entering 2017 with a number of unresolved issues. Domestically, the September 24th general election might see an important...

Since the 1970s, oil and labour shocks made even orthodox Keynesian economists more concerned about the costs of inflation. These costs were eventually recognised because an increased foreign competition became...

Inflation seems on its way up internationally, with the deflation risk having seemingly disappeared from the radar screens. However, large...

Notwithstanding Trump's assertive posture, Xi Jinping won't compromise on China's core interests. As the next Communist Party Congress draws closer,...

Since the beginning of 2017, the TRY has depreciated by 4.7% against the USD. In this paper, we discuss why...

France's three main presidential candidates sport different worldviews. Marine Le Pen is a hardline nationalist, François Fillon a moderate gaullist,...

The Greek debt crisis is likely to resurface as the year progresses towards the summer of 2017. The country is on track to become (once again) the focus of markets...

Xi and Trump share a desire to make their respective empires great again and seem willing to pursue such a...

As Trump looks at the world only through commercial lenses, he seems willing to engage in diplomacy or to intervene...

Libya’s three governments and numerous militias have been vying for power and territory. However, they share an interest in increasing...

“Jobless recoveries” are a well-known phenomenon in economics: especially in the initial stage of the recovery phase of the business cycle, GDP accelerates without generating new jobs, as employers want...

Even if Da’esh may be bound to lose Mosul and Raqqah, it will most certainly adapt to the new reality...

For the past 25 years the judiciary has been the only power to fill the vacuums created by legislative uncertainty...

The Korean peninsula is where a Third World War might probably erupt. A strategic theatre where the United States and...

Trump’s stated appreciation of Putin promises to change US-Russia relations for good. But US Congress and federal agencies will slowly...

Germany reacted to Donald Trump’s election with dismay. In the next years Berlin might be inclined by Washington’s lower profile...

The president’s agenda will no doubt be drafted by himself and by his strategists. That said, it will, however, be...

The fortunes of Europe have always been intertwined with developments in the Balkans. The most famous episode (the killing of...

Russia’s economic, political and geopolitical future can appear different if seen from a short-term or a longer-term perspective. In this...

The FOMC increased the Fed funds target range, as widely expected, and for the first time in 18 months, it...

We attended the 171st-Meeting of the OPEC Conference in Vienna for what was shaping up to be the most significant...

In this paper, we focus our attention on medium-to long-term forecasts of univariate macrofinancial variables, which likely incorporate long-term trends...

OPEC represents a complex version of the classic game theory problem; the prisoner’s dilemma. To optimise collective value creation, OPEC...

Venezuela’s ongoing economic, financial and political crisis can be considered a variant of what economists sometimes call Dutch disease, i.e....

Turkey’s president Recep Erdogan has a grand vision for the country and for his own future. According to his plan,...

On December 4th, 2016 Italian voters will be asked to approve or reject a series of amendments to Italy’s constitution,...

In the aftermath of the election of Donald Trump as U.S. President, uncertainty abounds as to what kind of president...

We recently visited Italy to assess the country’s conjunctural, structural and political developments in a crucial period of its recent...

On October 25th, the Board of Directors of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) authorised the disbursement of €2.8 billion to...

In this note, we want to discuss reasons for holding a negative-yielding bond. Intuitively, one would imagine that investors have...