MacroGeo Cable

Is Israel preparing to go to war with Hezbollah?

Middle East

Why a new war is not near

As of late, Israeli media have been abuzz with news regarding Israel Defense Forces (IDF) getting ready for a confrontation with Hezbollah.

On June 14 an IDF commando brigade completed a drill in Cyprus’ Troodos Mountains and the media promptly noted how Cyprus’ terrain closely resembles Lebanon’s.

Moreover, Lieutenant General Gadi Eisenkot, Israel’s top military officer, went as far as stating that, in case of war, Israel would take care of thousands of Lebanese civilians who would have to leave their homes.

Eleven years after their last clash, time would seem ripe for a new war between Israel and Hezbollah.

Also, Lebanon’s most prominent Shia guerrilla group has been trapped in Syria’s quagmire for several years and, according to Israel’s intelligence, its arsenal could be moderately depleted.

All the more reason for Israel to seize the moment.

However, any war needs a narrative and a casus belli and, aside from the need for Jerusalem to regularly «mow the lawn», the purported upcoming war between Israel and Hezbollah lacks both.

And until both emerge war can be near but not too near.