Weekly cables

Week 11 - 2017

Despite Trump’s promised opening to Russia and the military downsizing underway in Europe since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. Army is now scouting locations in Northern Germany for possibly basing there as many as 4,000 soldiers. MacroGeo is looking closely at visits made in the past weeks by U.S. military officials in the towns of Fallingbostel and Bergen, less than 200 kilometers from the key port of Bremerhaven. A development which could further signal a strategic split between the White House and U.S. federal agencies and which could prove Europe’s enduring relevance to America’s interests.

In Syria American special forces recently acted as a buffer between Turkish and Kurd forces near the town of Manbij, showing no intention of abandoning Kurdish fighters to their own destiny. Notwithstanding a much hyped offensive on Raqqa, here the U.S. appears ready to stay for the long run as to curtail Turkey’s and Iran’s influence. While Washington considers Russia’s position in Syria «not threatening», if not for Moscow itself.

In the wake of South Korea’s president Park Guen Hye’s upheld impeachment and ahead of next presidential elections, Japan has now at the center of Beijing’s and Washington’s analysis. As both countries consider the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system to be there to stay, regardless of whom will be elected president, a possible win by opposition lawmaker Moon Jae-In could undo the détente between Seoul and Tokyo.

This week India's prime minister Narendra Modi scored an important victory in Uttar Pradesh’s parliamentary elections. Here his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured 325 out of 403 seats; a result which could strongly affect India’s future. Home to 220 million people, more than Germany, Great Britain and France combined, Uttar Pradesh is India’s most populous state and the harbinger of events to come. Modi and his party need to win several state elections in order to control India’s upper house and effectively pursue their agenda. Especially imposing a Hindu identity on India’s multicultural population.