Weekly cables

Week 20 - 2017

Why the US deep State doesn’t want Trump’s impeachment

Much has been made of the US Justice Department appointment of former Fbi Director Robert Mueller as special counsel in the investigation over Russia’s interference in the last presidential election. Many observers genuinely believe that the decision will lead to Donald Trump’s impeachment over his administration alleged ties to the Kremlin and Fbi Director James Comey’s abrupt firing. In reality, the US security and defense apparatus wants to influence Trump’s doing, not to cause his fall. The so-called deep State wouldn’t be able to manage such a dramatic development, as it’d be very hard to explain the American public. While having Trump under investigation for months might force him to follow the lead of US federal agencies. And that is all they want and need.

What to glean from Trump’s trip to Saudi Arabia

Once again, many analysts felt confident enough to see in Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia a US realignment with the Sunni front. If not a prelude to the upcoming war with Iran. Quite the contrary, Trump’s trip to Riyad has disappointed the House of Saud. His anti-Iranian rhetoric and the arms deal signed notwithstanding, Trump has not announced the intention to tear up the nuclear agreement reached with the Islamic Republic. Nor has he signaled the intention to step up efforts to topple Bashar Assad’s regime, Iran’s main client. While the American president has urged Saudi officials to do more to fight Islamic terrorism and «drive terrorists out of this earth».

MacroGeo and Rouhani’s win

Last week, we stated that Iran’s conservatives seemed certain to lose the upcoming presidential election. So much so that in the weeks prior to the vote they had been focusing their efforts on sowing division among Reformists, rather than actually fighting to win. On May 19, President Hassan Rouhani won re-election in a landslide, garnering 57% of the vote and leaving many analysts baffled. While his main conservative challengerEbrahim Raisi, widely considered as Ayatollah Khamenei’s preferred candidate, only got 38% of the vote.