Geofinancial Analysis

Why Erdogan’s Geopolitical and Economic Dreams Are Bound to Clash with Reality


Turkey’s president Recep Erdogan has a grand vision for the country and for his own future. According to his plan, by 2023 Turkey should be a presidential republic. It should also be the greatest power in the Islamic world, permanently ranked among the top ten world economies. Ankara would resolve the Kurdish issue by wiping out the PKK and by integrating those Kurds who want to be full-fledged citizens of the new country. Erdogan would gain enough freedom of manoeuvre to independently pursue Turkey’s goals without leaving NATO. Several former provinces and cities of the Ottoman Empire would return to Turkey, either by annexation or by informal control. There is little to no threat to Erdogan’s rule over the next 10 years, but the president might be unable to deliver his grand vision, due to lack of his and the country’s resources as well as international interference.