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Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Europe
North America
Russia
Europe, North America, Russia - February 04, 2019
Jacob L. Shapiro
Jacob L. Shapiro

Remembering to Forget World War II

Remembering to Forget World War II
People tend to compare every modern conflict to Hitler and the Nazis. They shouldn’t.
People tend to compare every modern conflict to Hitler and the Nazis. They shouldn’t.

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Russia
North America
Russia, North America - January 31, 2019
Matthew Crosston
Matthew Crosston

Russian Bots, American Sheeple 

Russian Bots, American Sheeple 
The Geopolitics of Russian Active Measures  
The Geopolitics of Russian Active Measures  

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Europe
Europe - January 28, 2019
Ryan Bridges
Ryan Bridges

Where Brexit Goes From Here

Where Brexit Goes From Here
London may soon have two options again. This time, it’s no deal or no Brexit.
London may soon have two options again. This time, it’s no deal or no Brexit.

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Europe
Europe - January 03, 2019
Jacob L. Shapiro
Jacob L. Shapiro

The Second Partition of Ukraine?

The Second Partition of Ukraine?
The country lost part of its territory nearly five years ago. Was that just the beginning?
The country lost part of its territory nearly five years ago. Was that just the beginning?

MG in-depth
MG in-depth -
East Asia
North America
East Asia, North America - January 03, 2019
Lucio Caracciolo
Lucio Caracciolo

NOT A CHINAMAN’S CHANCE

NOT A CHINAMAN’S CHANCE
US and China won't coexist peacefully forever 
US and China won't coexist peacefully forever 

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
East Asia
East Asia - November 29, 2018
Phillip Orchard
Phillip Orchard

The Philippines Makes the Most of China’s Interest

The Philippines Makes the Most of China’s Interest
Manila may be warming to Beijing, but not enough to solve China’s maritime access problems.
Manila may be warming to Beijing, but not enough to solve China’s maritime access problems.

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Russia
East Asia
Russia, East Asia - November 08, 2018
George Friedman
George Friedman

The Illusion of a Russia-China Alliance

The Illusion of a Russia-China Alliance
Neither country can solve the other’s top economic and strategic problems.
Neither country can solve the other’s top economic and strategic problems.

October 28, 2018
Lucio Caracciolo
Lucio Caracciolo

WHO IS ISRAEL

WHO IS ISRAEL
Israel's self-certification of its Judaic stigma has caused an uproar within the country itself as well as all over the...
Israel's self-certification of its Judaic stigma has caused an uproar within the country itself as well as all over the world

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Middle East
Middle East - October 17, 2018
Xander Snyder
Xander Snyder

In Yemen, Cracks in the Saudi Alliance Begin to Show

In Yemen, Cracks in the Saudi Alliance Begin to Show
The UAE doesn’t need a unified Yemen to secure its interests, but Saudi Arabia does.
The UAE doesn’t need a unified Yemen to secure its interests, but Saudi Arabia does.

MG in-depth
MG in-depth -
North America
Europe
Russia
Middle East
East Asia
North America, Europe, Russia, Middle East, East Asia - September 23, 2018
Lucio Caracciolo
Lucio Caracciolo

IN PRAISE OF THE ANTECHAMBER

IN PRAISE OF THE ANTECHAMBER
Power lies in the Deep State, not in the political state
Power lies in the Deep State, not in the political state

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
North America
East Asia
North America, East Asia - September 21, 2018
Phillip Orchard
Phillip Orchard

The US and China dig in on trade

The US and China dig in on trade
The trade war will only get bloodier from here.
The trade war will only get bloodier from here.

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Middle East
Middle East - September 08, 2018
Xander Snyder
Xander Snyder

Idlib, the Latest Frontline in the Syrian Civil War

Idlib, the Latest Frontline in the Syrian Civil War
A battle over Idlib poses a threat to all countries involved in the conflict
A battle over Idlib poses a threat to all countries involved in the conflict

MG in-depth
MG in-depth -
Middle East and North Africa
North America
Middle East and North Africa, North America - August 15, 2018
Lucio Caracciolo
Lucio Caracciolo

THE SNAKE’S HEAD

THE SNAKE’S HEAD
Americans are sure: the Persian Empire 2.0 cannot be contained, only destroyed
Americans are sure: the Persian Empire 2.0 cannot be contained, only destroyed

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Italy
North America
Europe
Italy, North America, Europe - July 23, 2018
Alessandro Aresu
Alessandro Aresu

Marchionne, Elkann and Italian capitalism

Marchionne, Elkann and Italian capitalism
Analyzing Sergio Marchionne's geopolitical impact on Italy
Analyzing Sergio Marchionne's geopolitical impact on Italy

MG in-depth
MG in-depth -
Europe
North America
South America
Italy
Europe, North America, South America, Italy - July 18, 2018
Lucio Caracciolo
Lucio Caracciolo

ELEPHANTS DON’T TAP DANCE

ELEPHANTS DON’T TAP DANCE
It is not a given that Rome will forever be the centre of Catholicism. However, there has not ever been...
It is not a given that Rome will forever be the centre of Catholicism. However, there has not ever been an empire without a centre

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
North America
East Asia
Europe
Middle East and North Africa
Russia
North America, East Asia, Europe, Middle East and North Africa, Russia - July 10, 2018

Toward a new understanding of world trade

Toward a new understanding of world trade
Precise evaluations of current and future global trade patterns are more important than ever
Precise evaluations of current and future global trade patterns are more important than ever

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Italy
Europe
North America
Italy, Europe, North America - July 04, 2018
Alessandro Aresu
Alessandro Aresu

The League, the last party standing

The League, the last party standing
How the League has gotten so far and what lies ahead for Matteo Salvini's party
How the League has gotten so far and what lies ahead for Matteo Salvini's party

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Europe
Germany
Europe, Germany - June 26, 2018
George Friedman
George Friedman

In Germany, politics recollects history

In Germany, politics recollects history
Disagreements over immigration threaten the ruling coalition
Disagreements over immigration threaten the ruling coalition

MG in-depth
MG in-depth -
Italy
Europe
Italy, Europe - June 21, 2018
Lucio Caracciolo
Lucio Caracciolo

LET US TRY AND EXIST

LET US TRY AND EXIST
We are worth a great deal more than we think we are, certainly more than we would like to be...
We are worth a great deal more than we think we are, certainly more than we would like to be worth and certainly even more so than the Eurozone states would like.

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Europe
Europe - June 16, 2018
Shapiro Jacob L.
Shapiro Jacob L.

The Latest Chapter in the European Migration Crisis

The Latest Chapter in the European Migration Crisis
Be careful what you wish for. You just might get it
Be careful what you wish for. You just might get it

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Italy
Europe
North America
Italy, Europe, North America - June 16, 2018
Antonia Colibasanu
Antonia Colibasanu

Why the US now fears what's happening in Italy

Why the US now fears what's happening in Italy
Italy’s importance to the United States is found in its role within U.S.-European affairs
Italy’s importance to the United States is found in its role within U.S.-European affairs

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Middle East
Middle East - June 06, 2018
Xander Snyder
Xander Snyder

A Win-Win-Win Situation in Northern Syria

A Win-Win-Win Situation in Northern Syria
A rare agreement has reportedly been reached by the United States and Turkey, with the Syrian Kurds stuck in the...
A rare agreement has reportedly been reached by the United States and Turkey, with the Syrian Kurds stuck in the middle.

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
East Asia
East Asia - May 21, 2018
Phillip Orchard
Phillip Orchard

North Korea manages expectations, one provocation at a time

North Korea manages expectations, one provocation at a time
Pyongyang thinks a deal is possible that would end the standoff largely on its own terms.
Pyongyang thinks a deal is possible that would end the standoff largely on its own terms.

MG in-depth
MG in-depth -
North America
Europe
East Asia
North America, Europe, East Asia - May 16, 2018
Lucio Caracciolo
Lucio Caracciolo

A WORLD OF STATES

A WORLD OF STATES
The prophets of the extinction of states have been proved wrong. If anything, we are seeing a proliferation of states.
The prophets of the extinction of states have been proved wrong. If anything, we are seeing a proliferation of states.

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Italy
Europe
Italy, Europe - April 28, 2018
Alessandro Aresu
Alessandro Aresu

Vincent Bolloré and Italian capitalism

Vincent Bolloré and Italian capitalism
Despite the success of some midcaps, Italian capitalism has become smaller, more confused and therefore geopolitically weaker
Despite the success of some midcaps, Italian capitalism has become smaller, more confused and therefore geopolitically weaker

MG in-depth
MG in-depth -
Europe
Africa
Europe, Africa - April 23, 2018
Lucio Caracciolo
Lucio Caracciolo

JUPITER AT THE ELYSEE PALACE

JUPITER AT THE ELYSEE PALACE
France would like to revamp the empire to prevent its own decline
France would like to revamp the empire to prevent its own decline

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Europe
Europe - April 17, 2018
Nora Kalinskij
Nora Kalinskij

Poland, the Natural Ally for Post-Brexit Britain

Poland, the Natural Ally for Post-Brexit Britain
Both countries are, in different ways, challenging the status quo in Europe    
Both countries are, in different ways, challenging the status quo in Europe    

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Middle East
Middle East - April 12, 2018
George Friedman
George Friedman

The Syrian Tangle

The Syrian Tangle
Direct intervention is not an appealing option for Trump, but the creation of uncertainty is  
Direct intervention is not an appealing option for Trump, but the creation of uncertainty is  

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
East Asia
East Asia - April 05, 2018
Stephen Nagy
Stephen Nagy

In Japan is demography destiny?

In Japan is demography destiny?
Time for a modern Meiji Restoration  
Time for a modern Meiji Restoration  

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Italy
Italy - March 26, 2018
Alessandro Aresu
Alessandro Aresu

Giancarlo Giorgetti and embedded sovereignism

Giancarlo Giorgetti and embedded sovereignism
Any thinking sovereignist knows that, in order to play a role, sovereignism needs to be embedded    
Any thinking sovereignist knows that, in order to play a role, sovereignism needs to be embedded    

MG in-depth
MG in-depth -
East Asia
East Asia - March 18, 2018
Lucio Caracciolo
Lucio Caracciolo

The Sun will rise again

The Sun will rise again
Why Japan will soon start the climb towards the summits of global power  
Why Japan will soon start the climb towards the summits of global power  

Macro-Economic Analysis
Macro-Economic Analysis -
East Asia
East Asia - March 16, 2018
Kel Kelly
Kel Kelly

It’s not the Economy, Stupid, it’s the Money

It’s not the Economy, Stupid, it’s the Money
What has looked like recession in Japan is really steady growth in the presence of a stable money supply  
What has looked like recession in Japan is really steady growth in the presence of a stable money supply  

Geopolitics on the rocks
MacroGeo Cable
Geopolitics on the rocks, MacroGeo Cable -
East Asia
East Asia - March 10, 2018
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

Why North Korea would benefit more from a détente than...

Why North Korea would benefit more from a détente than the US
Both North Korea and the US are acting out of vulnerability but the US more so
Both North Korea and the US are acting out of vulnerability but the US more so

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Africa
Africa - February 23, 2018
Allison Fedirka
Allison Fedirka

Ethiopia's Unrest Invites Global Competition

Ethiopia's Unrest Invites Global Competition
Turkey, US, Russia, Iran, China and India look at Ethiopia's unrest and see an opportunity
Turkey, US, Russia, Iran, China and India look at Ethiopia's unrest and see an opportunity

MG in-depth
MG in-depth -
Europe
Middle East and North Africa
Central Asia
East Asia
Europe, Middle East and North Africa, Central Asia, East Asia - February 16, 2018
Lucio Caracciolo
Lucio Caracciolo

WAITING FOR AVERROES

WAITING FOR AVERROES
In Europe we have managed to transform a religion into an ethnic group just as any person originating in a...
In Europe we have managed to transform a religion into an ethnic group just as any person originating in a country identified as Muslim has been reduced to an Islamic dimension  

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
North America
North America - February 08, 2018
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

Why if it were up to him, Trump’s tax plan...

Why if it were up to him, Trump’s tax plan simply wouldn’t be
If Trump got his wish and turned the superpower into a conventional country, the US wouldn't be able to withstand...
If Trump got his wish and turned the superpower into a conventional country, the US wouldn't be able to withstand such a reform

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
East Asia
East Asia - February 01, 2018
Jacob L. Shapiro
Jacob L. Shapiro

Puzzling US policy on North Korea

Puzzling US policy on North Korea
When will the president make a clear decision?
When will the president make a clear decision?

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Middle East
Middle East - January 31, 2018
George Friedman
George Friedman

Israel's Russia gambit

Israel's Russia gambit
The Israelis are asking the Russians to strip Iran of what it had fought for in Syria
The Israelis are asking the Russians to strip Iran of what it had fought for in Syria

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Russia
Russia - January 19, 2018
George Friedman
George Friedman

Russia and the limits of power

Russia and the limits of power
Perception matters when there aren’t many options.
Perception matters when there aren’t many options.

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
East Asia
East Asia - January 05, 2018
Phillip Orchard
Phillip Orchard

North Korea: Hollow Words Ring in the New Year

North Korea: Hollow Words Ring in the New Year
The underlying fundamentals of the crisis on the Korean Peninsula have not changed
The underlying fundamentals of the crisis on the Korean Peninsula have not changed

MG in-depth
MG in-depth -
Europe
Russia
Europe, Russia - January 04, 2018
Lucio Caracciolo
Lucio Caracciolo

WALLS ARE BETTER THAN WARS

WALLS ARE BETTER THAN WARS
The Trimarium’s prism is key to explore power relations in the U.S.-Russian-German triangle
The Trimarium’s prism is key to explore power relations in the U.S.-Russian-German triangle

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Europe
Italy
Europe, Italy - December 29, 2017
Alessandro Aresu
Alessandro Aresu

Three trends characterising Italy’s internal geopolitics

Three trends characterising Italy’s internal geopolitics
Machiavelli's prophecy, increased regionalism and unbreakable bureaucracy
Machiavelli's prophecy, increased regionalism and unbreakable bureaucracy

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Russia
East Asia
Russia, East Asia - December 26, 2017
Shapiro Jacob L.
Shapiro Jacob L.

Russia and China’s Alliance of Convenience

Russia and China’s Alliance of Convenience
A common enemy isn’t the basis for a stable, enduring partnership
A common enemy isn’t the basis for a stable, enduring partnership

Geofinancial Analysis
Geofinancial Analysis -
Europe
Europe - December 15, 2017
Marco Valerio Lo Prete
Marco Valerio Lo Prete

Italy’s long “fiscal illusion”

Italy’s long “fiscal illusion”
Unlike past public debt’s peaks, Italy's current debt load is the long term consequence of a fiscal illusion
Unlike past public debt’s peaks, Italy's current debt load is the long term consequence of a fiscal illusion

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
North America
East Asia
India
North America, East Asia, India - December 07, 2017
Prabhu Guptara
Prabhu Guptara

Are you safe? Whose responsibility is it?

Are you safe? Whose responsibility is it?
The impact of technology on geopolitics*
The impact of technology on geopolitics*

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Middle East
Middle East - December 01, 2017
Kamran Bokhari
Kamran Bokhari

A Complex Dynamic Between Israel and Iran

A Complex Dynamic Between Israel and Iran
The two countries may have some shared interests, even though it doesn’t seem that way
The two countries may have some shared interests, even though it doesn’t seem that way

MG in-depth
MG in-depth -
Europe
Europe - November 22, 2017
Lucio Caracciolo
Lucio Caracciolo

DUCK OR RABBIT?

DUCK OR RABBIT?
Why the Catalan question won’t end any time soon.
Why the Catalan question won’t end any time soon.

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
South Asia
India
South Asia, India - November 20, 2017
Prabhu Guptara
Prabhu Guptara

Why does India oppose China’s Silk Roads?

Why does India oppose China’s Silk Roads?
A geopolitical answer: India’s discomfort with China's objective of dominating the world
A geopolitical answer: India’s discomfort with China's objective of dominating the world

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Middle East
Middle East - November 16, 2017
Jacob L. Shapiro
Jacob L. Shapiro

Saudi Arabia, Russia: Delivering Missiles, Delivering Promises of Cooperation

Saudi Arabia, Russia: Delivering Missiles, Delivering Promises of Cooperation
Russia is hedging the bets it placed on Iran, while Teheran continues to reap what benefits it can from Moscow’s...
Russia is hedging the bets it placed on Iran, while Teheran continues to reap what benefits it can from Moscow’s moves

MacroGeo Cable
MacroGeo Cable -
Russia
Middle East and North Africa
East Asia
Russia, Middle East and North Africa, East Asia - November 06, 2017
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

Russia and the US to reach a tactical agreement? Don’t...

Russia and the US to reach a tactical agreement? Don’t hold your breath
Times are still not ripe for a truce, as one can glean by reading geopolitics leafs
Times are still not ripe for a truce, as one can glean by reading geopolitics leafs

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
East Asia
South Asia
East Asia, South Asia - November 02, 2017
Phillip Orchard
Phillip Orchard

Containing China on the Open Seas

Containing China on the Open Seas
An Asian NATO is still not in the cards, but Japan, India, Australia and the United States are destinted to...
An Asian NATO is still not in the cards, but Japan, India, Australia and the United States are destinted to join forces against China

MG in-depth
MG in-depth -
East Asia
North America
East Asia, North America - October 19, 2017
Lucio Caracciolo
Lucio Caracciolo

A LOSS OF FACE OR HEADS

A LOSS OF FACE OR HEADS
Excited by an adolescent fervour, in the ongoing clash between North Korea and the US Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump...
Excited by an adolescent fervour, in the ongoing clash between North Korea and the US Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump could lose their heads in order to save face.

MacroGeo Cable
MacroGeo Cable -
Middle East
Middle East - October 14, 2017
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

The rationale behind Trump’s announcement on Iran

The rationale behind Trump’s announcement on Iran
Since 2015 much has changed in the Middle East and the US needed to ruffle some feathers
Since 2015 much has changed in the Middle East and the US needed to ruffle some feathers

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Middle East
Central Asia
Middle East, Central Asia - October 07, 2017
Kamran Bokhari
Kamran Bokhari

Can US relations stand the test of time?

Can US relations stand the test of time?
The logic that bound the U.S. to Saudi Arabia and Pakistan no longer exists
The logic that bound the U.S. to Saudi Arabia and Pakistan no longer exists

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
North America
North America - October 06, 2017
Joseph Shupac
Joseph Shupac

Why Canada and Mexico are bound to get closer

Why Canada and Mexico are bound to get closer
Maybe the US will divide and conquer, economically speaking, both its North American partners but there are many reasons to...
Maybe the US will divide and conquer, economically speaking, both its North American partners but there are many reasons to believe Canada and Mexico will draw closer together

MG in-depth
MG in-depth -
North America
North America - October 02, 2017
Lucio Caracciolo
Lucio Caracciolo

UNCLE SAM IS NOT MY UNCLE

UNCLE SAM IS NOT MY UNCLE
Only by persuading the most rebellious chicanos to embrace the American way of life the U.S. can thrive as the...
Only by persuading the most rebellious chicanos to embrace the American way of life the U.S. can thrive as the only superpower

Macro-Economic Analysis
Macro-Economic Analysis -
Europe
Europe - September 21, 2017
Marco Valerio Lo Prete
Marco Valerio Lo Prete

The ECB and demographic challenges in Europe: a primer on...

The ECB and demographic challenges in Europe: a primer on Mario Draghi
Demographic changes - especially ageing populations  - are putting more pressure on public finances
Demographic changes - especially ageing populations  - are putting more pressure on public finances

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
North America
North America - September 15, 2017
Allison Fedirka
Allison Fedirka

In the decades ahead US and Mexico will fight for...

In the decades ahead US and Mexico will fight for control over Cuba
Current lull in the bilateral competition will not last forever. And the rivalry will most likely resume in the Caribbean
Current lull in the bilateral competition will not last forever. And the rivalry will most likely resume in the Caribbean

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
North America
North America - September 14, 2017
George Friedman
George Friedman

In Canada, Deep Divisions Brilliantly Managed

In Canada, Deep Divisions Brilliantly Managed
The country has been able to withstand differences that would tear other countries apart
The country has been able to withstand differences that would tear other countries apart

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Europe
Middle East and North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Europe, Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa - September 06, 2017
K. Campbell
K. Campbell

How to drastically reduce irregular migration flow to the E.U.

How to drastically reduce irregular migration flow to the E.U.
Most of the ongoing and planned E.U. efforts to tackle the problem focus on aspects physically closest to home, but...
Most of the ongoing and planned E.U. efforts to tackle the problem focus on aspects physically closest to home, but to actually stem the flow Europe must prioritize actions closer to the sources of migration

MacroGeo Cable
MacroGeo Cable -
North America
North America - August 19, 2017
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

Steve Bannon and America’s geopolitical trajectory

Steve Bannon and America’s geopolitical trajectory
Why Trump's former chief strategist's attempt to disband the US empire was doomed from the start
Why Trump's former chief strategist's attempt to disband the US empire was doomed from the start

Macro-Economic Analysis
Macro-Economic Analysis -
North America
Europe
East Asia
North America, Europe, East Asia - August 18, 2017
Marco Valerio Lo Prete
Marco Valerio Lo Prete

Why Trump’s "America first" approach might expose the G20 protectionism

Why Trump’s "America first" approach might expose the G20 protectionism
By urging its trade partners to dismiss discriminatory measures against US goods, Trump is showing that when it comes to...
By urging its trade partners to dismiss discriminatory measures against US goods, Trump is showing that when it comes to protectionism Europe and China cannot take the moral high ground. And he's also setting the US and Germany on a geopolitical collision course.

MG in-depth
MG in-depth -
Europe
East Asia
North America
Europe, East Asia, North America - August 07, 2017
Alessandro Aresu
Alessandro Aresu
Matteo Negro
Matteo Negro

A “Europe that protects”, but from whom and why?

A “Europe that protects”, but from whom and why?
European countries are on the defensive. They want to protect themselves from China’s acquisitions in advanced technological sectors, from America’s...
European countries are on the defensive. They want to protect themselves from China’s acquisitions in advanced technological sectors, from America’s digital empires and from Brussels’ interventionist attitude. Why France's idea of protection is also linked to the balance of power among EU States.

MacroGeo Cable
MacroGeo Cable -
Europe
Europe - July 28, 2017
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

Macron and Trump: a marriage made in geopolitics

Macron and Trump: a marriage made in geopolitics
Emmanuel Macron and Donald Trump couldn’t be any more different but now France and the US need each other.
Emmanuel Macron and Donald Trump couldn’t be any more different but now France and the US need each other.

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
North America
Middle East and North Africa
North America, Middle East and North Africa - July 27, 2017
Kofi Campbell
Kofi Campbell

What Trump can do with the Iran Nuclear Deal

What Trump can do with the Iran Nuclear Deal
Much to the pleasure of the hardliners, Trump could unilaterally withdraw from the nuclear deal. However, such a move would...
Much to the pleasure of the hardliners, Trump could unilaterally withdraw from the nuclear deal. However, such a move would probably cause a significant split between the U.S. and the rest of the West (plus Russia) and prompt Iran to resume its nuclear activities.

Known unknown
Known unknown -
East Asia
North America
East Asia, North America - July 21, 2017
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

Why China’s New Silk Roads won’t be enough to challenge...

Why China’s New Silk Roads won’t be enough to challenge America’s supremacy
OBOR has been conceived to increase China’s exports but throughout history no world hegemon has ever been a net exporter
OBOR has been conceived to increase China’s exports but throughout history no world hegemon has ever been a net exporter

MG in-depth
MG in-depth - July 15, 2017
Lucio Caracciolo
Lucio Caracciolo

The sea does not wash the shores of Italy

The sea does not wash the shores of Italy
Influenced by Europeanist rhetoric  suggesting that it should cling to the Alps so as not to fall into Africa, over...
Influenced by Europeanist rhetoric  suggesting that it should cling to the Alps so as not to fall into Africa, over the years Italy has come to see the Mediterranean only as an element of vulnerability. In the meantime other powers have been dominating the Mare nostrum. It is only by rediscovering a Mediterranean vocation that Italy can pursue its strategic goals.

Weekly cables
Weekly cables - July 12, 2017

Week 24 - 2017

Week 24 - 2017
The US needs to assure Beijing and convince Seoul before attacking North Korea  As proved by MacroGeo, until a couple...
The US needs to assure Beijing and convince Seoul before attacking North Korea  As proved by MacroGeo, until a couple of months ago the Trump administration didn’t want to make...
Netanyahu tells Trump that his plan to revive the peace process is dead on arrival On June 20 Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the construction of the first Israeli...
US Congress wants to reduce White House power to wage war On June 29 the U.S. House Appropriations Committee approved an amendment to repeal the wide ranging 2001 law that...

MacroGeo Cable
MacroGeo Cable -
North America
North America - July 12, 2017
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

US Congress wants to reduce White House power to wage...

US Congress wants to reduce White House power to wage war
A trend we believe will continue to strengthen in the next years
A trend we believe will continue to strengthen in the next years

MacroGeo Cable
MacroGeo Cable -
East Asia
North America
East Asia, North America - July 11, 2017
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

The US needs to assure Beijing and convince Seoul before...

The US needs to assure Beijing and convince Seoul before attacking North Korea
Necessary maneuvers which would bring the US and North Korea closer to war
Necessary maneuvers which would bring the US and North Korea closer to war

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
East Asia
East Asia - July 07, 2017
Michael Cucek
Michael Cucek

How the last North Korean missile launch has bonded Trump...

How the last North Korean missile launch has bonded Trump and Abe even closer
Pyongyang’s last ICBM test has turned attention away from Abe’s domestic troubles and drawn the U.S. into sharing the danger...
Pyongyang’s last ICBM test has turned attention away from Abe’s domestic troubles and drawn the U.S. into sharing the danger Japan faces every day from DPRK missile and nuclear capabilities. Why Abe will be one of the few leaders Trump will treat with respect at the forthcoming G20 summit.

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks - June 29, 2017
Kofi Campbell
Kofi Campbell

Abe doctrine and its risks: what Japan’s future could look...

Abe doctrine and its risks: what Japan’s future could look like
Shinzo Abe has pursued the re-establishment of Japan as the leading power in Asia through economic growth and the buildup...
Shinzo Abe has pursued the re-establishment of Japan as the leading power in Asia through economic growth and the buildup of military forces. However, his penchant for revisionism and nationalism could exacerbate tensions with China and South Korea, while also dragging the US into the fray.

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
North America
North America - June 22, 2017
Joseph Shupac
Joseph Shupac

Can Canada resist Trump’s offensive on Nafta?

Can Canada resist Trump’s offensive on Nafta?
Canada’s dependency on the US and internal divisions might reduce its leverage in any trade negotiations. But its interests being global...
Canada’s dependency on the US and internal divisions might reduce its leverage in any trade negotiations. But its interests being global in scope, the US cannot afford to spend much geopolitical capital haggling with Canada.

MG in-depth
MG in-depth -
Europe
North America
Europe, North America - June 16, 2017
Lucio Caracciolo
Lucio Caracciolo

A German Europe; an American nightmare

A German Europe; an American nightmare
German-American relations have always been marked by inescapable hostility. Now Washington’s plot to prevent the creation of a German sphere...
German-American relations have always been marked by inescapable hostility. Now Washington’s plot to prevent the creation of a German sphere of influence in the heart of Europe is bound to increase such hostility even more. Why Germany possibly allying with Russia (and China) is America’s main nightmare.

MacroGeo Cable
MacroGeo Cable -
Middle East
Middle East - June 16, 2017
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

Is Israel preparing to go to war with Hezbollah?

Is Israel preparing to go to war with Hezbollah?
Why a new war is not near
Why a new war is not near

MacroGeo Cable
MacroGeo Cable -
North America
Middle East
Europe
North America, Middle East, Europe - June 12, 2017
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

America’s promises and Turkey’s weakness

America’s promises and Turkey’s weakness
Why Ankara’s acceptance of Washington getting cozy to the Kurds is a clear show of weakness
Why Ankara’s acceptance of Washington getting cozy to the Kurds is a clear show of weakness

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks - June 09, 2017
Alessandro Aresu
Alessandro Aresu

Pope Francis against the Apocalypse

Pope Francis against the Apocalypse
Coming from the end of the world but only wanting to generate beginnings, the pontiff doesn't focus on spatial geopolitics...
Coming from the end of the world but only wanting to generate beginnings, the pontiff doesn't focus on spatial geopolitics and rejects any final battle to defeat the ultimate enemy. Steve Bannon’s worldview versus Pope Francis’.

MacroGeo Cable
MacroGeo Cable -
Middle East
Middle East - June 09, 2017
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

Iran’s Reformists reject Tillerson’s call for regime change

Iran’s Reformists reject Tillerson’s call for regime change
Imperial countries tend to overcome internal divisions if faced with an external enemy
Imperial countries tend to overcome internal divisions if faced with an external enemy

Known unknown
Known unknown -
East Asia
East Asia - June 05, 2017
Joseph Shupac
Joseph Shupac

North Korea and the Olympics curse

North Korea and the Olympics curse
Countries or entire regions tend to change dramatically soon after hosting major sports events like the Olympics or World Cup....
Countries or entire regions tend to change dramatically soon after hosting major sports events like the Olympics or World Cup. What kind of change will the next Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang bring to the Korean peninsula?

Weekly cables
Weekly cables - June 05, 2017
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

Week 23 - 2017

Week 23 - 2017
Is Israel preparing to go to war with Hezbollah? As of late, Israeli media have been abuzz with news regarding...
Is Israel preparing to go to war with Hezbollah? As of late, Israeli media have been abuzz with news regarding Israel Defense Forces (IDF) getting ready for a confrontation with...
Iran’s Reformists reject Tillerson’s call for regime change US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson recently expressed America’s support for a peaceful transition of government in Iran. However, Tillerson’s brazen statement...
America’s promises and Turkey’s weakness The Pentagon allegedly assured Ankara that it will take back the weapons it's been handing out to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a predominantly Kurdish...

Weekly cables
Weekly cables - June 01, 2017
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

Week 22 - 2017

Week 22 - 2017
Saudi Arabia between Trump and the deep State  Last month, while visiting Riyadh, Trump suggested Saudi and United Arab Emirates...
Saudi Arabia between Trump and the deep State  Last month, while visiting Riyadh, Trump suggested Saudi and United Arab Emirates officials that his administration would back an attempt to force...
US wants to retain its bases and open more installations in Germany Confirming what MacroGeo previously wrote, we now learn that the Pentagon wants to retain a base in Mannheim,...
US Senate sends a clear message to Trump on Russia On June 15 the US Senate overwhelmingly passed a bipartisan package of new Russia sanctions that also enables Congress to...

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
South Asia
South Asia - May 26, 2017
Prabhu Guptara
Prabhu Guptara

What game is Modi playing?

What game is Modi playing?
Prime Minister Modi has long used his towering image abroad to mask India’s economic problems and the huge social unease...
Prime Minister Modi has long used his towering image abroad to mask India’s economic problems and the huge social unease his program to “Hindutvise” (or “saffronise”) the country is creating. Who is benefiting financially from the political entrenchment of India’s new elite?

Weekly cables
Weekly cables - May 22, 2017
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

Week 21 - 2017

Week 21 - 2017
The U.S. won’t abandon Russia’s containment (no matter what Trump says) Last week the Trump administration released its overall spending...
The U.S. won’t abandon Russia’s containment (no matter what Trump says) Last week the Trump administration released its overall spending plan. While only a proposal for now, it remains a...
Seoul won’t cancel THAAD (no matter what Moon Jae-in says) During the last electoral campaign, South Korea’s new president Moon Jae-in expressed many times his opposition to the deployment of...
Turkey hires Trump’s lobbyist to try to sway Congress Trump’s longtime lobbyist, Brian Ballard, has signed a $1.5 million contract with the government of Turkey, as Ankara tries to influence...

MG in-depth
MG in-depth -
Europe
Europe - May 19, 2017
Lucio Caracciolo
Lucio Caracciolo

Why Italy is needed

Why Italy is needed
Despite what Italian public and elites believe, Italy is necessary to prevent the peninsula from breaking up and becoming the...
Despite what Italian public and elites believe, Italy is necessary to prevent the peninsula from breaking up and becoming the theatre of the upcoming clash between Americans and Germans. Five reasons why Italy matters.

Weekly cables
Weekly cables - May 15, 2017
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

Week 19 - 2017

Week 19 - 2017
Trump, Nafta and a White House ruse Now we know, Trump is all about haggling. When setting up a negotiation,...
Trump, Nafta and a White House ruse Now we know, Trump is all about haggling. When setting up a negotiation, he sets the bar really high in the attempt to...
The US won’t extradite Fethullah Gülen For months many observers have been wondering whether Trump administration would push for the extradition of Turkish cleric Fethullah Gülen, leader of the Hizmet...
Iran’s conservatives seem certain to lose next presidential election Strangely enough, as of late Iran’s hardliners have been lavishing praise on Eshaq Jahangiri, vice president of Hassan Rouhani's government and...

Weekly cables
Weekly cables - May 15, 2017
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

Week 20 - 2017

Week 20 - 2017
Why the US deep State doesn’t want Trump’s impeachment Much has been made of the US Justice Department appointment of...
Why the US deep State doesn’t want Trump’s impeachment Much has been made of the US Justice Department appointment of former Fbi Director Robert Mueller as special counsel in the...
What to glean from Trump’s trip to Saudi Arabia Once again, many analysts felt confident enough to see in Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia a US realignment with the Sunni...
MacroGeo and Rouhani’s win Last week, we stated that Iran’s conservatives seemed certain to lose the upcoming presidential election. So much so that in the weeks prior to the vote...

MacroGeo Cable
MacroGeo Cable -
North America
North America - May 14, 2017
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

Why the US deep State doesn’t want Trump’s impeachment

Why the US deep State doesn’t want Trump’s impeachment
Having Trump under investigation for months is all US federal agencies might want and need
Having Trump under investigation for months is all US federal agencies might want and need

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks - May 12, 2017
Massimo Nicolazzi
Massimo Nicolazzi

The secret to energy transition

The secret to energy transition
The energy transition we are witnessing today, from fossil fuels to renewables, is mandated by the tragedy of horizons, rather...
The energy transition we are witnessing today, from fossil fuels to renewables, is mandated by the tragedy of horizons, rather than by cost efficiency. Why to succeed it will need both public policies and private investments.

MacroGeo Cable
MacroGeo Cable -
Middle East
North America
Middle East, North America - May 12, 2017
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

The US won’t extradite Fethullah Gülen

The US won’t extradite Fethullah Gülen
Lobbying can say much of how Washington works
Lobbying can say much of how Washington works

Quick views
Quick views -
Europe
Europe - May 09, 2017
Arlind Rama
Arlind Rama

In political crises, Macedonia and Albania risk economic slowdown

In political crises, Macedonia and Albania risk economic slowdown
Political instability is increasing in Albania, where the main opposition party is threatening not to participate in the June general...
Political instability is increasing in Albania, where the main opposition party is threatening not to participate in the June general election, and in Macedonia, where violent protesters have stormed into parliament. In both cases, political instability starts affecting economic activity.

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks - May 08, 2017
Antonio S.J. Spadaro
Antonio S.J. Spadaro

The Diplomacy of Pope Francis

The Diplomacy of Pope Francis
By rejecting rigid interpretive mechanisms and by showing a commitment for the common good, Pope Francis has put mercy at...
By rejecting rigid interpretive mechanisms and by showing a commitment for the common good, Pope Francis has put mercy at the center of his diplomacy. The five traits of “open thought”.

Weekly cables
Weekly cables - May 07, 2017
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

Week 18 - 2017

Week 18 - 2017
A two-speed Europe and the upcoming US-Germany clash Despite being touted as the next phase of the European project, two-speed...
A two-speed Europe and the upcoming US-Germany clash Despite being touted as the next phase of the European project, two-speed Europe is actually the formalization of Germany’s sphere of influence...
US Congress doesn’t want Trump to rip up the nuclear deal with Iran As they’re preparing a bill to slap new sanctions on Iran, American lawmakers are also acting to...
Trump, his imperial narrative and a trip to the Vatican According to his plan, Donald Trump’s visit to the Vatican, scheduled for May 24, should boost his credentials as the...

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
East Asia
East Asia - May 03, 2017
Michael Cucek
Michael Cucek

A Sino-Japanese Springtime?

A Sino-Japanese Springtime?
Sino-Japanese relations are on the upswing. By favoring people-to-people exchanges and being less emphatic, Tokyo and Beijing are both unveiling...
Sino-Japanese relations are on the upswing. By favoring people-to-people exchanges and being less emphatic, Tokyo and Beijing are both unveiling a new approach to the bilateral relationship. Why no summit between Abe and Xi wouldn’t be a failure.

Weekly cables
Weekly cables - April 26, 2017
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

Week 17 - 2017

Week 17 - 2017
France’s presidential election and the country’s strategic dilemma Facing off in the runoff vote of France’s presidential election, Emmanuel Macron...
France’s presidential election and the country’s strategic dilemma Facing off in the runoff vote of France’s presidential election, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen well embody the strategic dilemma Paris...
Russia scores a win in its fight against US intelligence (but still has a long way to go) Social media company Twitter informed that it will comply with Russia’s terrorism...
MacroGeo and the US military bluff on North Korea In our April 11 cable, we wrote: “Japan might have called the American bluff on North Korea. As the U.S. Navy...

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
South America
South America - April 26, 2017
Niccolò Locatelli
Niccolò Locatelli

Maduro can go, but Venezuela’s instability is here to stay

Maduro can go, but Venezuela’s instability is here to stay
No matter the president's fate, Venezuela’s dependence on oil prices is bound to trigger more unrest and protests. Why chavistas...
No matter the president's fate, Venezuela’s dependence on oil prices is bound to trigger more unrest and protests. Why chavistas possibly staging a coup are Maduro’s biggest concern.

Macro-Economic Analysis
Macro-Economic Analysis -
East Asia
East Asia - April 21, 2017
Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi
Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi
Francisco Quintana
Francisco Quintana

Understanding China’s rise: the role of captive savings

Understanding China’s rise: the role of captive savings
Over the last three decades, China’s contribution to global growth tripled. The Communist Party of China (CPC) - the Republic’s...
Over the last three decades, China’s contribution to global growth tripled. The Communist Party of China (CPC) - the Republic’s founding-and-ruling political party - started reforming1 the economy in 1978.

Quick views
Quick views -
Europe
Europe - April 21, 2017
Andreas Schalla
Andreas Schalla

Grexit Ghost 2.0: Will The World Bank Come To the...

Grexit Ghost 2.0: Will The World Bank Come To the Rescue?
As it is still unclear whether the IMF’s participation in the latest Greek bailout package worth EUR 86bn is secured,...
As it is still unclear whether the IMF’s participation in the latest Greek bailout package worth EUR 86bn is secured, separate talks with the World Bank are ongoing. With important...

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Middle East and North Africa
Middle East and North Africa - April 21, 2017
Daniele Santoro
Daniele Santoro

Why Erdogan is now weaker, hence more dangerous

Why Erdogan is now weaker, hence more dangerous
The controversial outcome of Sunday’s referendum has paradoxically curtailed Erdogan’s power. But feeling squeezed between domestic oppositions and stalemate on...
The controversial outcome of Sunday’s referendum has paradoxically curtailed Erdogan’s power. But feeling squeezed between domestic oppositions and stalemate on the Syrian front, the sultan might adopt an even more antagonizing attitude toward the West.

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Middle East and North Africa
Middle East and North Africa - April 18, 2017
Giovanni Parigi
Giovanni Parigi

The rule of militias, the Middle East after ra‘is and...

The rule of militias, the Middle East after ra‘is and Da‘esh
Current crises in the Middle East are marked by the rise of militias with ethnic, sectarian, local, tribal or simply...
Current crises in the Middle East are marked by the rise of militias with ethnic, sectarian, local, tribal or simply criminal identity. Being active in failed, failing or fragile States, those militias are successfully conquering or sharing power with the governments, thus asserting themselves as one of the main trends shaping the future order of the Middle East.

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
North America
North America - April 14, 2017
Joseph Shupac
Joseph Shupac

Trudeau walks a tightrope

Trudeau walks a tightrope
Spurred by international popularity and a large majority in parliament, for the past year and a half Canada’s prime minister...
Spurred by international popularity and a large majority in parliament, for the past year and a half Canada’s prime minister Justin Trudeau has pursued a foreign policy not wholly beholden to the US. But Ottawa’s economic dependency on Washington will soon curtail his room for manoeuver.

Central Bank Impressions
Central Bank Impressions -
Europe
Europe - April 13, 2017
Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel Roubini

BOE Prepares To Tighten Policy (In Spite of Brexit Clouds...

BOE Prepares To Tighten Policy (In Spite of Brexit Clouds Gathering)
In March 2017, the BOE voted 8-1 to keep the policy rate unchanged. In this paper we discuss what could...
In March 2017, the BOE voted 8-1 to keep the policy rate unchanged. In this paper we discuss what could be the next policy moves of the Bank, their timing and their implications for markets.

Market Strategy
Market Strategy - April 12, 2017
Andreas Schalla
Andreas Schalla

Currency Wars, Trade Wars and War On Cash

Currency Wars, Trade Wars and War On Cash
We are witnessing an escalation of threats of trade wars, currency wars and wars on cash. In this paper we...
We are witnessing an escalation of threats of trade wars, currency wars and wars on cash. In this paper we discuss their main features and implications.

Geofinancial Analysis
Geofinancial Analysis -
Middle East and North Africa
Middle East and North Africa - April 11, 2017
Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi
Mert Yildiz
Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Mert Yildiz

Turkey: Referendum Unlikely to Impact the Medium-Term Outlook

Turkey: Referendum Unlikely to Impact the Medium-Term Outlook
Just a week before the Constitutional referendum to provide the Turkish President with executive powers we discuss the likely outcome,...
Just a week before the Constitutional referendum to provide the Turkish President with executive powers we discuss the likely outcome, and its implications for the political system, the macro-economy and financial markets.

Weekly cables
Weekly cables - April 11, 2017
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

Week 15 - 2017

Week 15 - 2017
Besides its international consequences, the U.S. attack on Syria also represented another episode in the tug of war between Trump...
Besides its international consequences, the U.S. attack on Syria also represented another episode in the tug of war between Trump and the so-called deep State. And both sides believe they’ve...
Japan might have called the American bluff on North Korea. As the U.S. Navy strike group Carl Vinson moves toward the western Pacific Ocean as a show of force aimed...
With all eyes on the incoming negotiations between Brussels (aka Berlin) and London, so far the real question behind Brexit has gone almost unnoticed. It took just the exit from...

Quick views
Quick views -
Europe
Europe - April 11, 2017
Mert Yildiz
Mert Yildiz

CNB's Removal Of FX Floor To Lead To Gradual Tightening

CNB's Removal Of FX Floor To Lead To Gradual Tightening
CNB removes the floor for the Czech Krona against the EUR after inflation overshoots its target. We expect CZK tightening...
CNB removes the floor for the Czech Krona against the EUR after inflation overshoots its target. We expect CZK tightening and a slow rate hiking cycle ahead.

Travel Journals
Travel Journals -
Europe
Europe - April 07, 2017
Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel Roubini

Germany: Economic Resilience and Political Fragility

Germany: Economic Resilience and Political Fragility
We recently visited Germany – Berlin and Frankfurt – to assess the state of the economy, views concerning the EU...
We recently visited Germany – Berlin and Frankfurt – to assess the state of the economy, views concerning the EU and the Eurozone and the political outlook as a general election will be held this year in September. In this report we discuss how Germany is preparing to deal with all these issues on the various fronts.

Known unknown
Known unknown -
North America
Middle East and North Africa
North America, Middle East and North Africa - April 07, 2017
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

Three goals for a U.S. attack on Syria

Three goals for a U.S. attack on Syria
The U.S. attack on the Syrian air base of Sharyat was mostly symbolic. Last night 59 tomahawk missiles, launched from...
The U.S. attack on the Syrian air base of Sharyat was mostly symbolic. Last night 59 tomahawk missiles, launched from destroyers Ross and Porter in the Eastern Mediterranean, struck the...

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
East Asia
East Asia - April 06, 2017
Giorgio Cuscito
Giorgio Cuscito

What China’s anti-terror campaign can’t solve in Xinjiang

What China’s anti-terror campaign can’t solve in Xinjiang
China has been intensifying repression against ethnic Uyghurs as to pacify its westernmost region and prevent terrorism from interfering with...
China has been intensifying repression against ethnic Uyghurs as to pacify its westernmost region and prevent terrorism from interfering with the next Communist Party Congress. But such a crackdown could further ignite tensions and boost jihadist recruitment

Geofinancial Analysis
Geofinancial Analysis -
Europe
Europe - April 06, 2017
Arlind Rama
Arlind Rama

The Western Balkans at a Crossroads: Amidst Nationalism and Pragmatism

The Western Balkans at a Crossroads: Amidst Nationalism and Pragmatism
The Western Balkans remain trapped in a vicious cycle of nationalist rhetoric undermining regional integration. In this paper, we discuss...
The Western Balkans remain trapped in a vicious cycle of nationalist rhetoric undermining regional integration. In this paper, we discuss the economic and geopolitical implications of the ongoing tensions in the region.

Central Bank Impressions
Central Bank Impressions -
Europe
Europe - April 04, 2017
Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel Roubini

ECB: Keep the Sequencing, Tweak The Guidance

ECB: Keep the Sequencing, Tweak The Guidance
The ECB has provided clear indications regarding its policy framework until the end of 2017. However, speculation is mounting about...
The ECB has provided clear indications regarding its policy framework until the end of 2017. However, speculation is mounting about the Governing Council’s intentions to make changes. In particular, press reports suggest that the ECB is considering the idea of changing the sequence of its exit strategy (by raising rates before QE is finished) or, at least its plans for future guidance. In this paper we discuss what the ECB will likely do in coming weeks and months, on forward guidance, interest rates and QE.

Travel Journals
Travel Journals -
East Asia
East Asia - April 03, 2017
Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel Roubini

Short-Term Stability at the Risk of Medium-Term Fragilities

Short-Term Stability at the Risk of Medium-Term Fragilities
I recently spent a few days in Beijing to attend – right after the National People’s Congress - the China...
I recently spent a few days in Beijing to attend – right after the National People’s Congress - the China Development Forum (CDF), the highest level meeting between senior Chinese policy makers and a delegation of foreign business leaders, academics, and international policy makers. In this report I discuss the expected path of reforms and their implications for key macro variables and markets.

Weekly cables
Weekly cables - April 03, 2017
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

Week 14 - 2017

Week 14 - 2017
Trump’s America is staying the course in the Middle East, pursuing the very same balance of power the Obama administration...
Trump’s America is staying the course in the Middle East, pursuing the very same balance of power the Obama administration tried to establish. In order to achieve such a goal,...
On March 25 the U.S. Senate voted overwhelmingly (97-2) to admit Montenegro to NATO, prolonging the Atlantic Alliance’s expansion into Eastern Europe and sending a strong signal against what the...
Much has been made of the protests which took place all across Russia for the past two weekends, especially following opposition leader and blogger Alexei Navalny’s arrest. On a geopolitical...

Quick views
Quick views -
Europe
Europe - March 31, 2017
Andreas Schalla
Andreas Schalla

Cracks in the EU: High Time to Pull Itself Together

Cracks in the EU: High Time to Pull Itself Together
Europe is in the middle of a storm, and could survive only if its leaders will manage to find new...
Europe is in the middle of a storm, and could survive only if its leaders will manage to find new reasons to stick together. The most prominent issues that seem...

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa - March 31, 2017
Luca Mainoldi
Luca Mainoldi

Everybody in, scrambling for Djibouti

Everybody in, scrambling for Djibouti
In the past years the rise of Somali piracy, the need to control the strategic Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and to expand...
In the past years the rise of Somali piracy, the need to control the strategic Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and to expand their own influence across Africa, have prompted the world’s major powers to establish permanent bases in Djibouti. As the U.S., China, Iran, Germany, Turkey, Japan, France, India, Russia and Italy check on each other, Djibouti’s inner fragility could further ignite tensions.

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
North America
North America - March 29, 2017
Alessandro Aresu
Alessandro Aresu

Geopolitics of technology and the rise of Peter Thiel

Geopolitics of technology and the rise of Peter Thiel
In the next years conflict between tech companies and traditional powers will spawn a non-neutral view of technology among Western...
In the next years conflict between tech companies and traditional powers will spawn a non-neutral view of technology among Western populations. As much as they’re now resisting free trade, they will call for a technology recession. Why Peter Thiel, linked to U.S. defense apparatus, is destined to benefit from such a development.

Quick views
Quick views -
Russia
Russia - March 29, 2017
Arlind Rama
Arlind Rama

The Kremlin's Blessing for Serbia’s Favourite Presidential Candidate

The Kremlin's Blessing for Serbia’s Favourite Presidential Candidate
Presidential elections in Serbia are not expected to produce surprises, but closer ties to the Kremlin raise concerns about Belgrade’s...
Presidential elections in Serbia are not expected to produce surprises, but closer ties to the Kremlin raise concerns about Belgrade’s nationalistic agenda within the context of the Western Balkans’ integration....

Travel Journals
Travel Journals -
North America
North America - March 27, 2017
Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel Roubini

A Deep-Dive In Trump-Land

A Deep-Dive In Trump-Land
Nouriel Roubini recently spent a few days in Washington, DC to understand the likely economic policies of the new Trump...
Nouriel Roubini recently spent a few days in Washington, DC to understand the likely economic policies of the new Trump administration. In this paper he reports some of the key takeaways, some of which will be addressed in more detail in forthcoming research notes.

Weekly cables
Weekly cables - March 27, 2017
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

Week 13 - 2017

Week 13 - 2017
In his first interview as Secretary of State and echoing one of Donald Trump’s electoral suggestions, Rex Tillerson broached the...
In his first interview as Secretary of State and echoing one of Donald Trump’s electoral suggestions, Rex Tillerson broached the possibility of Japan and South Korea obtaining nuclear weapons. Talking...
Despite much fanfare to the contrary, Trump’s alleged penchant for defending Israel’s interests won’t be enough to get U.S.-Israeli relations back to where they were prior to Obama’s presidency. As...
A few days after MacroGeo warned against looking at the outcome of the Netherlands’ general elections as a turning point in reviving the European Union, Dutch caretaker finance minister Jeroen...

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
East Asia
East Asia - March 24, 2017
Michael Cucek
Michael Cucek

Left in the dark, Japan dealing with Trump

Left in the dark, Japan dealing with Trump
At first sight Abe and Trump seem to be on the same page, but Tokyo is terrified at the U.S....
At first sight Abe and Trump seem to be on the same page, but Tokyo is terrified at the U.S. needing Japan more than the other way around. As so-called Japan hands swore allegiance to Hillary Clinton during last presidential campaign, Tokyo now lacks any understanding of what the Trump administration really wants.

Market Strategy
Market Strategy - March 23, 2017
Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi
Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi

Asset Allocation 2017: Lower expected returns, Higher exposure to alternatives

Asset Allocation 2017: Lower expected returns, Higher exposure to alternatives
Where to Invest in 2017? Geopolitical risks, lower expected returns and weak growth suggest greater exposure to alternative asset classes....
Where to Invest in 2017? Geopolitical risks, lower expected returns and weak growth suggest greater exposure to alternative asset classes. This report initiates our Asset Allocation series, which will see two major publications per year (in December and June) and two quarterly updates (in March and September), highlighting what has changed compared to the scenario described in the previous quarter.

Energy Strategy
Energy Strategy -
Middle East and North Africa
Middle East and North Africa - March 22, 2017
Luca Baccarini
Luca Baccarini

Gas developments in the Eastern Mediterranean will continue (in spite...

Gas developments in the Eastern Mediterranean will continue (in spite of geopolitical tension)
Major natural gas discoveries have occurred in recent years off the coasts of Israel, Cyprus and Egypt. This paper is...
Major natural gas discoveries have occurred in recent years off the coasts of Israel, Cyprus and Egypt. This paper is aimed at answering the following question: Will economic opportunities be a boost to regional cooperation or will geopolitical constraints limit potential development?

Weekly cables
Weekly cables - March 20, 2017
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

Week 12 - 2017

Week 12 - 2017
Many observers and commentators across Europe have welcomed the results of Dutch general elections which show moderate prime minister Mark...
Many observers and commentators across Europe have welcomed the results of Dutch general elections which show moderate prime minister Mark Rutte holding onto power and the Euroskeptic Party for Freedom...
As major powers are revving up for the final assault on Raqqa, the US is working hard as to prevent Turkey from gaining control of Eastern Syria once the Islamic...
California Attorney General Xavier Becerra announced that the Golden State is setting up an office in Washington, an unexpected decision aimed at curtailing Trump administration orders which might conflict with...

Weekly cables
Weekly cables - March 18, 2017
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

Week 11 - 2017

Week 11 - 2017
Despite Trump’s promised opening to Russia and the military downsizing underway in Europe since the end of the Cold War,...
Despite Trump’s promised opening to Russia and the military downsizing underway in Europe since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. Army is now scouting locations in Northern Germany...
In Syria American special forces recently acted as a buffer between Turkish and Kurd forces near the town of Manbij, showing no intention of abandoning Kurdish fighters to their own...
In the wake of South Korea’s president Park Guen Hye’s upheld impeachment and ahead of next presidential elections, Japan has now at the center of Beijing’s and Washington’s analysis. As...
This week India's prime minister Narendra Modi scored an important victory in Uttar Pradesh’s parliamentary elections. Here his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured 325 out of 403 seats; a result...

Geofinancial Analysis
Geofinancial Analysis -
Europe
Europe - March 17, 2017
Pascal Gauchon
Pascal Gauchon

French Presidential Elections: Between Farce And Political Renewal

French Presidential Elections: Between Farce And Political Renewal
France is experiencing the most bizarre presidential election of its entire history since 1848. In this report we discuss how...
France is experiencing the most bizarre presidential election of its entire history since 1848. In this report we discuss how this unusual election could play out and its consequences on the French political system.

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Middle East and North Africa
Middle East and North Africa - March 16, 2017
John C. Hulsman
John C. Hulsman

The Empire Strikes Back: The Return of the U.S. -...

The Empire Strikes Back: The Return of the U.S. - Saudi Relations
The more ideological wing of the Trump administration sees radical Islam as the number one global threat to America. The...
The more ideological wing of the Trump administration sees radical Islam as the number one global threat to America. The more realist faction in the Trump’s White House sees old enemy Iran as still the primary American nemesis in the Middle East. In this paper we discuss why U.S. President Trump would like for U.S.-Saudi relations to "go back to normal," and whether he can really ignore the "balance of power" Obama tried in the past years to establish in the region.

Central Bank Impressions
Central Bank Impressions -
North America
North America - March 16, 2017
Alessandro Tentori
Alessandro Tentori

FOMC Review: See you in June

FOMC Review: See you in June
The Fed increase its policy rates as widely expected. In this report, we discuss the recent move by the Federal...
The Fed increase its policy rates as widely expected. In this report, we discuss the recent move by the Federal reserve and its implications for markets and the real economy.

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Europe
Europe - March 15, 2017
Lucio Caracciolo
Lucio Caracciolo

How Germany is rediscovering its strategic dimension (in spite of...

How Germany is rediscovering its strategic dimension (in spite of itself)
Uncertainty surrounding America’s commitment to Europe, tension with Russia and the destabilisation in North Africa and the Middle East are...
Uncertainty surrounding America’s commitment to Europe, tension with Russia and the destabilisation in North Africa and the Middle East are now compelling theBundesrepublik to rethink its security strategy. In this paper we discuss what Germany might do in coming years to increase its military capacity.

Energy Strategy
Energy Strategy - March 13, 2017
Adam Ritchie
Adam Ritchie

OPEC Compliance: Watch the Area Under the Curve

OPEC Compliance: Watch the Area Under the Curve
In November 2016, OPEC member countries decided a 1.2 mb/d cut to production for the first six months of 2017....
In November 2016, OPEC member countries decided a 1.2 mb/d cut to production for the first six months of 2017. This was expected to reduce inventories and favour an increase in oil prices. In this paper, we discuss the level of compliance from OPEC members and how this can affect oil prices, going forward.

Policy Papers
Policy Papers -
Europe
Europe - March 12, 2017

A joint intervention for Italy: a non-punitive plan for investment...

A joint intervention for Italy: a non-punitive plan for investment and reform
Italy has economically underperformed most of its Euro-area peers for the last few years. Austerity-based policy measures adopted since the...
Italy has economically underperformed most of its Euro-area peers for the last few years. Austerity-based policy measures adopted since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 have not helped, but the...

Quick views
Quick views -
Europe
Europe - March 10, 2017
Arlind Rama
Arlind Rama

Macedonia in a downward spiral of division

Macedonia in a downward spiral of division
The recent elections in Macedonia have sparked incremental and divisive nationalistic hard-line rhetoric that raises concerns about a potential ethnic...
The recent elections in Macedonia have sparked incremental and divisive nationalistic hard-line rhetoric that raises concerns about a potential ethnic conflict, instead of producing a constructive political solution for the...

Central Bank Impressions
Central Bank Impressions -
Europe
Europe - March 10, 2017
Alessandro Tentori
Alessandro Tentori

FOMC: After a Done Deal

FOMC: After a Done Deal
After the rate hike in December 2016, the Fed seems ready to increase rates again. In this report, we discuss...
After the rate hike in December 2016, the Fed seems ready to increase rates again. In this report, we discuss what the Fed will do at the March FOMC meeting and its implications for markets.

MG in-depth
MG in-depth -
North America
North America - March 10, 2017
Lucio Caracciolo
Lucio Caracciolo

Why empires are not a good bargain

Why empires are not a good bargain
Trump’s election is the by-product of America’s imperial fatigue. But will the U.S. resign from being the world’s only superpower?...
Trump’s election is the by-product of America’s imperial fatigue. But will the U.S. resign from being the world’s only superpower? And are any of its competitors ready to take over?

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
North America
North America - March 09, 2017
Pamela K. Starr
Pamela K. Starr

How U.S. and Mexico are prepping for a fight

How U.S. and Mexico are prepping for a fight
Despite unprecedented cooperation between the two countries’ bureaucracies, Trump threatens to hit Mexico hard on security, immigration and trade. But...
Despite unprecedented cooperation between the two countries’ bureaucracies, Trump threatens to hit Mexico hard on security, immigration and trade. But Mexico can strike back in many ways

Geofinancial Analysis
Geofinancial Analysis -
Europe
Europe - March 08, 2017
Fabrizio Maronta
Fabrizio Maronta

Too Many Crises Affecting Europe (And Not Enough Solutions)

Too Many Crises Affecting Europe (And Not Enough Solutions)
The EU is a potentially lethal mix of common complaints and national sins, all conspiring to tear down the Union....
The EU is a potentially lethal mix of common complaints and national sins, all conspiring to tear down the Union. Such a conundrum is exposing Europe’s structural failures, and could trigger an overdue metamorphosis. This paper discusses the ingredients of this mix, and what could be its geopolitical, macroeconomic and market implications.

Quick views
Quick views -
Europe
Europe - March 06, 2017
Andreas Schalla
Andreas Schalla

Erdogan Attempts Headlock on Merkel

Erdogan Attempts Headlock on Merkel
Merkel is under rising pressure to make significant decisions and maintaining her chancellorship will become a far greater challenge than...
Merkel is under rising pressure to make significant decisions and maintaining her chancellorship will become a far greater challenge than previously thought. Angela Merkel´s lead in opinion polls over SPD´s...

Central Bank Impressions
Central Bank Impressions -
Europe
Europe - March 03, 2017
Alex Waters
Alex Waters

ECB: Beware of Staff Projections

ECB: Beware of Staff Projections
As the March's meeting of the ECB approaches, we discuss how the Governing Council can use its macroeconomic staff projections...
As the March's meeting of the ECB approaches, we discuss how the Governing Council can use its macroeconomic staff projections as an effective communication tool to indicate the future course of its policy stance.

Known unknown
Known unknown -
North America
North America - February 28, 2017
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

How the U.S. Deep State’s war on Trump will evolve

How the U.S. Deep State’s war on Trump will evolve
As MacroGeo predicted weeks before Donald Trump’s inauguration, U.S. federal agencies are now waging a fierce war against the president’s...
As MacroGeo predicted weeks before Donald Trump’s inauguration, U.S. federal agencies are now waging a fierce war against the president’s asserted opening to Russia, sabotaging any thaw between the two...

Quick views
Quick views -
Europe
Europe - February 28, 2017
Andreas Schalla
Andreas Schalla

Gunpowder Behind the Pleasant Façade of Greek Bailout Talks

Gunpowder Behind the Pleasant Façade of Greek Bailout Talks
A few days ago, major efforts were undertaken by top officials representing The Institutions (a.k.a. troika) to present a unanimous...
A few days ago, major efforts were undertaken by top officials representing The Institutions (a.k.a. troika) to present a unanimous front regarding current bailout efforts for Greece. Even though creditors...

Big-Think Pieces
Big-Think Pieces -
Europe
Europe - February 27, 2017
Lucio Caracciolo
Lucio Caracciolo
Brunello Rosa
Brunello Rosa

Europe in The Brexit and Trump Era: Dis-Integration and Re-Grouping

Europe in The Brexit and Trump Era: Dis-Integration and Re-Grouping
At the beginning of the last century Europe dominated the world. In other words, the world was European. Nowadays, Europe...
At the beginning of the last century Europe dominated the world. In other words, the world was European. Nowadays, Europe is dominated by global geopolitical dynamics it can no longer control nor manage. The European Union is not the global player it promised to become. On the contrary, it has embarked upon gradual dis-integration. In this paper we discuss the geopolitical and macro-financial implications of this process, as well as what we believe will happen after that.

Macro-Economic Analysis
Macro-Economic Analysis -
North America
North America - February 24, 2017
Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel Roubini

Will The U.S. Adopt a Border Adjustment Tax?

Will The U.S. Adopt a Border Adjustment Tax?
One of the most controversial aspects of the corporate tax reform proposed by Republicans in the US House of Representatives...
One of the most controversial aspects of the corporate tax reform proposed by Republicans in the US House of Representatives is the proposal for a border-adjustment tax. In this paper we discuss in detail the arguments against and in favour of such a tax and then assess whether it is likely to be implemented or not.

Travel Journals
Travel Journals -
Europe
Europe - February 24, 2017
Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel Roubini

UK: Jumping Without Parachute

UK: Jumping Without Parachute
Our recent visit to London took place around the time the UK parliament approved the Brexit bill and the government...
Our recent visit to London took place around the time the UK parliament approved the Brexit bill and the government presented the White Paper on the UK’s position ahead of the negotiations with the EU. In this article we discuss what are the risks for the UK stemming from these negotiations, and their implications for sterling.

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
South Asia
South Asia - February 23, 2017
Prabhu Guptara
Prabhu Guptara

How tensions between Delhi and India’s numerous states might cripple...

How tensions between Delhi and India’s numerous states might cripple the Union
Strains between the central government and the States have long affected India’s foreign policy. But Delhi’s drive to impose a...
Strains between the central government and the States have long affected India’s foreign policy. But Delhi’s drive to impose a particular brand of Hindu culture on the whole country is now causing widespread resistance. And might undermine India’s federal structure.

Travel Journals
Travel Journals -
Europe
Europe - February 22, 2017
Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel Roubini

Reality Pricking the Brussels Bubble

Reality Pricking the Brussels Bubble
Europe faces a world in which America leans towards protectionism and unilateralism (and expresses mixed signals and effective scepticism about...
Europe faces a world in which America leans towards protectionism and unilateralism (and expresses mixed signals and effective scepticism about the European Union and NATO); Russia gains geopolitical influence over Europe and the Middle East; and the EU is still absorbing the shock of Brexit, while entering into a difficult electoral cycle. In this paper, we investigate what kind of future the European integration process can have and whether integration, as opposed to dis-integration forces, will have the upper hand.

Geofinancial Analysis
Geofinancial Analysis -
Europe
Europe - February 16, 2017
Andreas Schalla
Andreas Schalla

Germany: A Reluctant Leader Moving into the Spotlight

Germany: A Reluctant Leader Moving into the Spotlight
Germany is entering 2017 with a number of unresolved issues. Domestically, the September 24th general election might see an important...
Germany is entering 2017 with a number of unresolved issues. Domestically, the September 24th general election might see an important political shift should Chancellor Angela Merkel be forced to step down. Internationally, Germany must defend its dominant role within the EU and the EZ, which many countries are now beginning to resent. Furthermore, the country’s position is going to be decisive in upcoming negotiations on Brexit and Grexit. In this report, we discuss the impact of all these issues on macroeconomic, political and market developments.

Quick views
Quick views - February 15, 2017
​Riccardo Fiorito
​Riccardo Fiorito

The Detrimental Impact Of Low Inflation On Debt Dynamics

The Detrimental Impact Of Low Inflation On Debt Dynamics
Since the 1970s, oil and labour shocks made even orthodox Keynesian economists more concerned about the costs of inflation. These...
Since the 1970s, oil and labour shocks made even orthodox Keynesian economists more concerned about the costs of inflation. These costs were eventually recognised because an increased foreign competition became...

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
East Asia
East Asia - February 14, 2017
Giorgio Cuscito
Giorgio Cuscito

Deciphering China’s perspective on Trump

Deciphering China’s perspective on Trump
Notwithstanding Trump's assertive posture, Xi Jinping won't compromise on China's core interests. As the next Communist Party Congress draws closer,...
Notwithstanding Trump's assertive posture, Xi Jinping won't compromise on China's core interests. As the next Communist Party Congress draws closer, Beijing might feel compelled to react forcefully to Washington's offensive on trade and the South China Sea. Why a U.S.-Russia thaw could be a game-changer.

Market Strategy
Market Strategy -
Europe
North America
Europe, North America - February 14, 2017
Alessandro Tentori
Alessandro Tentori

Inflation Trends in US and EZ Drive Diverging Yield Curve...

Inflation Trends in US and EZ Drive Diverging Yield Curve Slopes
Inflation seems on its way up internationally, with the deflation risk having seemingly disappeared from the radar screens. However, large...
Inflation seems on its way up internationally, with the deflation risk having seemingly disappeared from the radar screens. However, large differences exist in the inflation dynamics across the Atlantic, with the recent rise in EZ mostly driven by base effects. In this paper we discuss the implications of this diverging inflation trends for monetary policy and interest rate strategy.

Market Strategy
Market Strategy -
Europe
Europe - February 13, 2017
Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi
Mert Yildiz
Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Mert Yildiz

Turkish Lira Set To Weaken Further

Turkish Lira Set To Weaken Further
Since the beginning of 2017, the TRY has depreciated by 4.7% against the USD. In this paper, we discuss why...
Since the beginning of 2017, the TRY has depreciated by 4.7% against the USD. In this paper, we discuss why we believe the TRY is set to weaken further, in the light of ongoing economic, political and geopolitical developments.

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Europe
Europe - February 07, 2017
Pascal Gauchon
Pascal Gauchon

Where is France headed?

Where is France headed?
France's three main presidential candidates sport different worldviews. Marine Le Pen is a hardline nationalist, François Fillon a moderate gaullist,...
France's three main presidential candidates sport different worldviews. Marine Le Pen is a hardline nationalist, François Fillon a moderate gaullist, while Macron is running as the last globalist. Still, whoever wins will have to deal with France's insurmountable geopolitical constraints; above all a persistent economic weakness.

Quick views
Quick views -
Europe
Europe - February 07, 2017
Andreas Schalla
Andreas Schalla

Grexit Ghost to Haunt Europe (Again)

Grexit Ghost to Haunt Europe (Again)
The Greek debt crisis is likely to resurface as the year progresses towards the summer of 2017. The country is...
The Greek debt crisis is likely to resurface as the year progresses towards the summer of 2017. The country is on track to become (once again) the focus of markets...

February 03, 2017
Lucio Caracciolo
Lucio Caracciolo

China and America set on a collision course

China and America set on a collision course
Xi and Trump share a desire to make their respective empires great again and seem willing to pursue such a...
Xi and Trump share a desire to make their respective empires great again and seem willing to pursue such a goal to the detriment of the other. As Washington accuses China of manipulating its currency and Beijing threatens to dump a trillion dollars' worth of U.S. Treasury bonds, a military incident could well be the natural outcome of a looming trade war.

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
North America
North America - January 31, 2017
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

Can Trump’s commercial worldview be reconciled with America’s imperial nature?

Can Trump’s commercial worldview be reconciled with America’s imperial nature?
As Trump looks at the world only through commercial lenses, he seems willing to engage in diplomacy or to intervene...
As Trump looks at the world only through commercial lenses, he seems willing to engage in diplomacy or to intervene abroad only if the U.S. can make a profit. To an empire, however, strategic goals should always be more relevant than commercial interests. Why America could stop being the world's only superpower.

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Middle East and North Africa
Middle East and North Africa - January 23, 2017
Mattia Toaldo
Mattia Toaldo

Can Libya's collapsing economy be the key to stabilisation?

Can Libya's collapsing economy be the key to stabilisation?
Libya’s three governments and numerous militias have been vying for power and territory. However, they share an interest in increasing...
Libya’s three governments and numerous militias have been vying for power and territory. However, they share an interest in increasing oil production and having money to spend. That’s why an economic deal among the country’s main factions could be the only way leading toward stabilisation.

Quick views
Quick views -
Europe
Europe - January 22, 2017
​Riccardo Fiorito
​Riccardo Fiorito

A “Recovery-less” Job Growth in Italy?

A “Recovery-less” Job Growth in Italy?
“Jobless recoveries” are a well-known phenomenon in economics: especially in the initial stage of the recovery phase of the business...
“Jobless recoveries” are a well-known phenomenon in economics: especially in the initial stage of the recovery phase of the business cycle, GDP accelerates without generating new jobs, as employers want...

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Middle East and North Africa
Middle East and North Africa - January 19, 2017
Giovanni Parigi
Giovanni Parigi

Da‘esh, the Mesopotamian Phoenix

Da‘esh, the Mesopotamian Phoenix
Even if Da’esh may be bound to lose Mosul and Raqqah, it will most certainly adapt to the new reality...
Even if Da’esh may be bound to lose Mosul and Raqqah, it will most certainly adapt to the new reality and rise again. Unless Sunnis are granted an active role in Iraqi and Syrian state institutions, their surge will stay endemic. Why foreign fighters are destined to return home.

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Europe
Europe - January 16, 2017
Alessandro Aresu
Alessandro Aresu

Why the judicial power is Italy’s “constant”

Why the judicial power is Italy’s “constant”
For the past 25 years the judiciary has been the only power to fill the vacuums created by legislative uncertainty...
For the past 25 years the judiciary has been the only power to fill the vacuums created by legislative uncertainty and politicians’ inadequacy. And if politics doesn't step in, the future relevance of the courts rulings will only increase. Why robots won't replace judges.

MG in-depth
MG in-depth -
East Asia
East Asia - January 10, 2017
Lucio Caracciolo
Lucio Caracciolo

One bomb leads to another

One bomb leads to another
The Korean peninsula is where a Third World War might probably erupt. A strategic theatre where the United States and...
The Korean peninsula is where a Third World War might probably erupt. A strategic theatre where the United States and China face each other, here exists the highest concentration of weapons in the world. While Trump’s asserted reluctance to protect Japan and South Korea from a Chinese nuclear attack could prompt Tōkyō and Seoul to go fully nuclear on their own.

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
Russia
Russia - January 09, 2017
Dario Fabbri
Dario Fabbri

Why "time" is all Trump can offer Putin

Why "time" is all Trump can offer Putin
Trump’s stated appreciation of Putin promises to change US-Russia relations for good. But US Congress and federal agencies will slowly...
Trump’s stated appreciation of Putin promises to change US-Russia relations for good. But US Congress and federal agencies will slowly continue building up pressure on Russia’s near abroad. That’s why “time” might turn out to be the only commodity Trump can offer Putin, while structural deficiencies will keep gnawing away at Russia’s geopolitical and economical foundations.

Geopolitics on the rocks
Geopolitics on the rocks -
North America
Europe
North America, Europe - December 30, 2016
Matteo Garavoglia
Matteo Garavoglia

Why Germany and the US are in for a troubled...

Why Germany and the US are in for a troubled relationship
Germany reacted to Donald Trump’s election with dismay. In the next years Berlin might be inclined by Washington’s lower profile...
Germany reacted to Donald Trump’s election with dismay. In the next years Berlin might be inclined by Washington’s lower profile to dominate European affairs even more. As German-American disagreements caused by Trump’s coming to power might spawn a reluctant hegemon.

MG in-depth
MG in-depth -
North America
North America - December 29, 2016
Lucio Caracciolo
Lucio Caracciolo

An American America

An American America
The president’s agenda will no doubt be drafted by himself and by his strategists. That said, it will, however, be...
The president’s agenda will no doubt be drafted by himself and by his strategists. That said, it will, however, be rewritten by American counterpowers and bureaucracies. It will be redefined by the geopolitical, socioeconomic and cultural environment we are all engrossed in, including the White House. The rest is for the media.

Geofinancial Analysis
Geofinancial Analysis -
Europe
Russia
Europe, Russia - December 20, 2016
Arlind Rama
Arlind Rama

Russia’s Pressure on the Balkans Increases

Russia’s Pressure on the Balkans Increases
The fortunes of Europe have always been intertwined with developments in the Balkans. The most famous episode (the killing of...
The fortunes of Europe have always been intertwined with developments in the Balkans. The most famous episode (the killing of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary in Sarajevo, which triggered WWI) is just an example. Just as the European Union seems destined to dis-integration and the wider European geopolitical space to further fragmentation, observing developments in the Balkans seems imperative at this stage. In this piece of analysis we discuss the economic and geopolitical influence that Russia is exerting on the region, and its repercussions for the European integration process.

Geofinancial Analysis
Geofinancial Analysis -
Russia
Russia - December 19, 2016
​Anastasia Nesvetailova
Mert Yildiz
​Anastasia Nesvetailova, Mert Yildiz
Adam Ritchie
Adam Ritchie

Russia: Short-Term Stability, Long-Term Vulnerability

Russia: Short-Term Stability, Long-Term Vulnerability
Russia’s economic, political and geopolitical future can appear different if seen from a short-term or a longer-term perspective. In this...
Russia’s economic, political and geopolitical future can appear different if seen from a short-term or a longer-term perspective. In this analysis we consider how Russia might evolve over the next 18-24 months, and discuss the medium-term economic outlook (beyond 2018), mostly determined by the link between economic performance and energy prices.

Central Bank Impressions
Central Bank Impressions -
North America
North America - December 15, 2016
Alessandro Tentori
Alessandro Tentori

FOMC Review: Fiscal Policy is a Key Variable

FOMC Review: Fiscal Policy is a Key Variable
The FOMC increased the Fed funds target range, as widely expected, and for the first time in 18 months, it...
The FOMC increased the Fed funds target range, as widely expected, and for the first time in 18 months, it also raised the Fed funds rate expected in the "longer-run," in line with our preview. In this review, we discuss all the implications of the latest move by the Fed.

Travel Journals
Energy Strategy
Travel Journals, Energy Strategy -
Middle East and North Africa
Middle East and North Africa - December 02, 2016
Adam Ritchie
Adam Ritchie

OPEC: Life in The Old Dog Yet

OPEC: Life in The Old Dog Yet
We attended the 171st-Meeting of the OPEC Conference in Vienna for what was shaping up to be the most significant...
We attended the 171st-Meeting of the OPEC Conference in Vienna for what was shaping up to be the most significant meeting of the oil cartel in almost a decade. It did not disappoint. In this report we discuss the challenges relative to the implementation of the agreement, and its implications for oil prices and the energy industry.

Forecasts
Forecasts - November 29, 2016
Andrea Tamoni
Alex Waters
Andrea Tamoni, Alex Waters

G4 Long-Term Macro-Financial Forecasts

G4 Long-Term Macro-Financial Forecasts
In this paper, we focus our attention on medium-to long-term forecasts of univariate macrofinancial variables, which likely incorporate long-term trends...
In this paper, we focus our attention on medium-to long-term forecasts of univariate macrofinancial variables, which likely incorporate long-term trends deriving from geopolitics (including political and policy cycles), demographics and technology. In order to take into account the uncertainty that these factors inherently carry, we provide range forecasts (as opposed to point forecasts). The estimate of these confidence intervals (with different probabilities) better reflects the possible distribution of events around their central tendency. Using the latest econometric techniques to measure uncertainty, we estimate medium- to long-term range forecasts for GDP per capita, inflation, real 10-year yield and spot FX rates for the U.S., Japan, Germany and the UK, 6, 8, 10 and 25 years out, with a confidence of 50%, 70% and 90%.

Energy Strategy
Energy Strategy -
Middle East and North Africa
Middle East and North Africa - November 21, 2016
Adam Ritchie
Adam Ritchie

Postcard from Algiers: Why an OPEC agreement in Vienna is...

Postcard from Algiers: Why an OPEC agreement in Vienna is unlikely and oil prices will remain low
OPEC represents a complex version of the classic game theory problem; the prisoner’s dilemma. To optimise collective value creation, OPEC...
OPEC represents a complex version of the classic game theory problem; the prisoner’s dilemma. To optimise collective value creation, OPEC members should increase production when prices are high, to gain market share, and reduce production when prices are low, to support price recovery. Consistent with other prisoner’s dilemma problems, research proves that each OPEC member is instead individually incentivised to increase production whether prices are low or high. This has been the behaviour exhibited by most OPEC members throughout the cartel’s history.

Geofinancial Analysis
Geofinancial Analysis -
South America
South America - November 21, 2016
Adam Ritchie
Adam Ritchie

Venezuela, Another Victim of the Resource Curse

Venezuela, Another Victim of the Resource Curse
Venezuela’s ongoing economic, financial and political crisis can be considered a variant of what economists sometimes call Dutch disease, i.e....
Venezuela’s ongoing economic, financial and political crisis can be considered a variant of what economists sometimes call Dutch disease, i.e. the apparent causal relationship between the increase in the economic development of a specific sector of a country and a decline in other sectors. In Venezuela, unsurprisingly, the culprit is the oil sector, which represents 96% of the country’s exports and is estimated to provide more than 50% of government revenue.

Geofinancial Analysis
Geofinancial Analysis -
Europe
Europe - November 18, 2016
Lucio Caracciolo
Mert Yildiz
Lucio Caracciolo, Mert Yildiz

Why Erdogan’s Geopolitical and Economic Dreams Are Bound to Clash...

Why Erdogan’s Geopolitical and Economic Dreams Are Bound to Clash with Reality
Turkey’s president Recep Erdogan has a grand vision for the country and for his own future. According to his plan,...
Turkey’s president Recep Erdogan has a grand vision for the country and for his own future. According to his plan, by 2023 Turkey should be a presidential republic. It should also be the greatest power in the Islamic world, permanently ranked among the top ten world economies. Ankara would resolve the Kurdish issue by wiping out the PKK and by integrating those Kurds who want to be full-fledged citizens of the new country. Erdogan would gain enough freedom of manoeuvre to independently pursue Turkey’s goals without leaving NATO. Several former provinces and cities of the Ottoman Empire would return to Turkey, either by annexation or by informal control. There is little to no threat to Erdogan’s rule over the next 10 years, but the president might be unable to deliver his grand vision, due to lack of his and the country’s resources as well as international interference.

Travel Journals
Travel Journals -
Europe
Europe - November 15, 2016
Macrogeo's Research Team
Macrogeo's Research Team

Italy (Part 2): Italy at the Referendum’s Crossroads

Italy (Part 2): Italy at the Referendum’s Crossroads
On December 4th, 2016 Italian voters will be asked to approve or reject a series of amendments to Italy’s constitution,...
On December 4th, 2016 Italian voters will be asked to approve or reject a series of amendments to Italy’s constitution, approved by parliament in April 2016. In addition to its specific legal meaning, the referendum has overtime acquired wide-ranging political implications on both the domestic and international front.

Geofinancial Analysis
Geofinancial Analysis -
North America
North America - November 10, 2016
Macrogeo's Research Team
Macrogeo's Research Team

Will The New U.S. President Really “Trump” Globalisation?

Will The New U.S. President Really “Trump” Globalisation?
In the aftermath of the election of Donald Trump as U.S. President, uncertainty abounds as to what kind of president...
In the aftermath of the election of Donald Trump as U.S. President, uncertainty abounds as to what kind of president (as opposed to candidate) he will be. In this article, we shed some light on some of the key current unknowns and identify some of the critical uncertainties surrounding the U.S. in the next few years.

Travel Journals
Travel Journals -
Europe
Europe - November 02, 2016
Macrogeo's Research Team
Macrogeo's Research Team

Italy (Part 1): A Cocktail Of Risk Ahead

Italy (Part 1): A Cocktail Of Risk Ahead
We recently visited Italy to assess the country’s conjunctural, structural and political developments in a crucial period of its recent...
We recently visited Italy to assess the country’s conjunctural, structural and political developments in a crucial period of its recent history, with a constitutional referendum looming large (and considered to be another “make-it or break-it” moments for the EU, very much like Brexit), in the middle of the always-tense negotiations between Rome and Brussels on the budget for 2017 and future years, and just before the series of catastrophic earthquakes that have shaken the country, with hundreds of victims and enormous damages to Italy’s residential and commercial real estate, infrastructure, and historical monuments.

Geofinancial Analysis
Geofinancial Analysis -
Europe
Europe - October 27, 2016
Andreas Schalla
Andreas Schalla

Pressure for Greek Debt Relief Increases

Pressure for Greek Debt Relief Increases
On October 25th, the Board of Directors of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) authorised the disbursement of €2.8 billion to...
On October 25th, the Board of Directors of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) authorised the disbursement of €2.8 billion to Greece, hence what remained of the second tranche of ESM financial assistance, as part of the third aid programme for Greece launched in August 2015, for a total volume of € 86bn. The release of this last tranche of funds (which takes the total ESM disbursement to Greece under its current program to €31.7bn) follows the successful completion of the first review of the program since the government completed the agreed “key milestones” related to pension reform, bank governance, the energy sector and revenue collection, while also making further progress towards making the new privatisation and investment fund operational.

Market Strategy
Market Strategy - October 24, 2016
Alessandro Tentori
Alessandro Tentori

Searching For The “Economic” Lower Bound in Yields

Searching For The “Economic” Lower Bound in Yields
In this note, we want to discuss reasons for holding a negative-yielding bond. Intuitively, one would imagine that investors have...
In this note, we want to discuss reasons for holding a negative-yielding bond. Intuitively, one would imagine that investors have the option of holding cash instead of a negative yielding-bond. However, cash is not always an option. So, we investigate the factors affecting demand for bonds beyond their price (or yield).


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